President Obama visits Austin taco restaurant with Democratic candidates
Former US President Barack Obama visited a taco restaurant in Austin on May 12 with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate and Texas gubernatorial candidate James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa.
- Recent polls show Texas Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 7 points.
- In the attorney general race, Republican Mayes Middleton has a 5-point lead over Democrat Nathan Johnson.
- The Texas Senate race is also attracting national attention as an important midterm election.
The Texas Senate race is drawing national attention, but it’s not the only race Republicans are trying to maintain in November’s midterm voting.
The race includes a gubernatorial race between Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who has kept the race within single digits as Abbott seeks a fourth term.
The attorney general seat vacated by Ken Paxton’s Senate race is on its own ballot, with a single-digit difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates.
New numbers in both races suggest the ground may be shifting in the incumbent party’s favor, so let’s take a look at where the Texas gubernatorial and attorney general races currently stand.
Two June polls show Mr. Abbott leading Mr. Hinojosa by 7 points.
Democrats haven’t ousted Mr. Abbott in three tries, most recently in 2022, when Mr. Abbott defeated former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke by 11 points. Mr. Hinojosa had kept his race within single digits, but two polls released in the past two weeks showed Mr. Abbott’s lead back to 7 points, roughly the same position as before the March primary.
A New York Times poll released June 30 showed Mr. Abbott leading Mr. Hinojosa 51% to 44%. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released June 22 shows Mr. Abbott leading by the same 7-point margin, 47% to 40%.
That gap narrowed in the spring, and a May 29 poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) showed Mr. Abbott leading 46% to 41%, with 9% undecided. This is a five-point difference, comparable to TPOR’s April poll, where Mr. Abbott led 48% to 43%. An April UT/Texas Politics Project poll had Mr. Abbott leading by 6 points, 44% to 38%.
A February poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs ahead of the March 2026 primary showed Abbott with a seven-point lead in a potential November 2026 matchup between the two candidates.
Middleton maintains early advantage as Paxton’s successor race takes shape
State Sen. Mays Middleton, who dubbed himself “MAGA Mays” during the primary, has claimed the Republican nomination for attorney general in the party’s runoff elections in late May. Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson won the runoff election the same night.
The first poll conducted by TPOR in May after the run-off showed Mr Middleton leading Mr Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% still undecided. A June UT/Texas Politics Project poll showed both candidates trailing, although the difference was 5 points.
Mr Middleton fell to 41% and Mr Johnson to 36%, while 2% preferred Liberal Tom Oxford, 4% preferred “someone else” and 18% had no opinion.
Mateo Rosiles is a Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and local Texas newspapers. Do you have any news tips for him? Email us at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
