Which states will lead in the 2028 Democratic primary?
The DNC is hearing input from 12 states on who should vote first in the 2028 Democratic primary, a decision that will determine campaigns and significant campaign spending.
The first signs of the 2028 race are taking shape, with new polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris and Vice President J.D. Vance leading in both parties.
A McLaughlin & Associates poll released June 25 found Harris leading with 26% of Democratic voters, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 16% and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 9%. On the Republican side, Vance has a large lead at 35%, compared to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 15% approval rating.
The poll was conducted between June 17th and June 23rd among 464 likely voters.
President Donald Trump has so far declined to endorse a successor, but at a May 11 White House event he praised both Vance and Rubio as potential “perfect tickets.”
“I believe it’s a dream team, but these are small things. That doesn’t mean I have my support under any circumstances,” Trump said. “I think it sounds like a presidential candidate and a vice presidential candidate.”
Other polls show a different picture.
McLaughlin’s research stands in contrast to other recent snapshots of the 2028 field, which suggest the race is less decided, especially among Democrats.
The Atlas Intel poll, conducted from May 4 to May 7, found Ocasio-Cortez leading Democratic candidates with 26 percent, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Newsom. Harris ranked fourth, with about half the support of Ocasio-Cortez.
On the Republican side of the poll, Mr. Rubio led with about 45% of primary voters, followed by Mr. Vance and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
An Emerson College poll released in late May showed yet another shift. Buttigieg leads the Democratic Party with 18%, followed by Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, while Harris is once again tied for fourth place with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Mr. Vance narrowly led the Republican Party with 36%, just one point ahead of Mr. Rubio.
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Contact us at fernando.cervantes@usatodayco.com and follow us at X @fern_cerv_.
