The Democratic primary in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District will be held on June 9th and could determine control of the House.
President Trump: If Republicans lose in the midterm elections, they will be impeached
In a lengthy speech to the House Republican training camp on January 6, the president referred to himself as “the king” and twice mentioned reelection.
- Four Democratic candidates are expected to run to replace Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine.
- Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is dominated by conservatives, and the Democrats who have won in the past tend to be moderates.
- However, all four candidates are running to Golden’s left.
Democrats face a high-stakes choice in a competitive primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on June 9th. The Democratic candidate’s chances could be crucial to the party’s efforts to win a House majority, as the candidate seeks to retain Rep. Jared Golden’s seat in a district that voted for President Donald Trump three times.
Four Democratic candidates are running to succeed Golden, a moderate who has won a series of razor-thin victories. They will face former Gov. Paul LePage, a conservative who is uncontested in the Republican primary.
Gun rights and gas prices are particularly important to residents in Maine’s two congressional districts, which tend to be more northern, rural and conservative. The Cook Political Report rates the district a “likely R.”
Golden, a strong supporter of gun rights, said he would be “okay” if Trump was re-elected in 2024. In his letter announcing that he will not run for re-election, Golden said the successful candidate needs to reflect the independence and diversity of opinions in the district.
But four candidates are all running to Golden’s left: state Sen. Joe Baldacci, D-Bangor, Maine Auditor Matthew Dunlap, social worker Paige Lourd and former legislative staffer Jordan Wood.
Maine experts said Democrats risk nominating someone too liberal to win in the district, which would hurt the party’s quest to flip the narrowly Republican-controlled U.S. House in November.
Can Democrats hold this seat? Is it necessary to nominate a moderate?
Maine’s unusual system of apportioning Electoral College votes by district has made Maine’s 2nd Congressional District the only New England state in the past three presidential elections to have given Trump its electoral votes. In 2024, they won the district championship by nine points.
“A second CD with general voting questions would give Republicans an advantage,” said Mark Brewer, chair of the political science department at the University of Maine. “But at the same time, this isn’t the Bible Belt of Alabama, right? A Democrat can win that seat. It’s got to be some kind of Democrat.”
Brewer said the more progressive candidates in the race are Loud, who has been particularly vocal in opposing Israel’s war efforts in Gaza, and Wood, who was chief of staff to former Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif.
Mr. Dunlap and Mr. Baldacci, who headed a prominent hunting organization in Maine, were close to the center.
In a May 27 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Research Center, Mr. Wood and Mr. Baldacci led with 23% and 22%, respectively, followed by Mr. Dunlap (17%) and Mr. Loud (14%). Mr. Wood has experience in national politics and connections from his time in Congress, and has deftly led the field with more than $5.7 million in fundraising. Mr. Dunlap received the next highest total on the Democratic side, about $930,000.
Brewer said Democrats would be “in a bit of a pickle” if Loud or Wood were nominated.
“I think we probably would have a better chance if we had Dunlap or Baldacci,” Brewer said. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for progressive Democrats to win a popular vote on CD 2.”
In response to a request for comment about whether Democratic candidates are too progressive to win in the 2nd District, Wood said in a statement that the issues he is working on are not partisan.
“People don’t seem to want to get credit for their accomplishments, but Mainers know what they value and what they want from Washington: Medicare for All, a democracy they believe in, and housing they can afford. It’s not that complicated,” Wood said. This is common sense whether it’s June or November.
Baldacci said he focuses on the needs of his district rather than ideological labels.
“It’s not a question of left or right, it’s a question of being competent, being one, being independent and having the interests of the people of Maine in mind,” Baldacci said in a phone interview with USA TODAY.
Challenges for Lepage
Mr. Lepage is popular among Republicans and has the highest profile on the campaign trail.
When Mills lost the 2022 gubernatorial race, he overtook Mills to lead the 2nd District. However, voters are generally divided on their favorability ratings by party, with 43% saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 44% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him, according to a June 2025 poll. And national factors could have a negative impact on Lepage, whom Trump endorsed in December.
Amy Fried, a political science professor emeritus at the University of Maine, said this year’s election is very similar to when Golden first won the seat in 2018, defeating Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin. It was also the midyear of President Trump’s administration, and Golden was more left-wing than he is now.
Midterm elections generally tend to go poorly for the president’s party, especially if the president is unpopular. President Trump’s approval rating is just 38%, according to a New York Times poll.
And oil prices have risen since the president took office, hitting Maine particularly hard. Maine has the highest household heating oil usage in the country, and Maine’s 2nd District is rural, so people tend to drive long distances.
“I think it’s going to be a tough race no matter who the Democrats nominate,” said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington. “Some candidates may be stronger than others in the general election, but I think it’s going to be a close race.” “Mr. Lepage has many advantages, but they all run counter to Mr. Trump’s reputation on the nation’s economy.”
How Ranked Choice Voting Affects Results
Maine’s use of ranked voting has helped Golden win at least two elections. It could help more moderate Democrats win primaries this year.
Ranked voting is a system that allows voters to mark candidates as their first, second, third, and subsequent choices. The votes are then tallied round by round, with each round eliminating the lowest ranked candidate and distributing the votes for the next candidate.
Maine uses this system in all state and federal primaries with three or more candidates.
A UNH poll shows Mr. Wood holding a slight lead over Mr. Baldacci in first-choice votes, but a Cornell University analysis using ranking data found that Mr. Baldacci would receive more votes than Mr. Wood. In the newspaper’s mock primary election, Mr. Baldacci won 67% of the vote, while Mr. Wood received 20.5%.
A SurveyUSA poll showed similar results, with Mr. Baldacci leading Mr. Wood 56% to 44% in a ranked-choice voting simulation.
Neither Mr. Dunlap, Mr. Loud nor Mr. Lepage responded to requests for comment.
