How undecided voters can play a key role in the DC mayoral election

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Janice Louise George, who held a five-point lead over McDuffie, a Kenyan, has widened her lead over her top rival in a Washington D.C. mayoral poll released last month.

His lead has widened to double digits, according to a poll released Friday by the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.

But in an election that introduced ranked-choice voting for the first time and with a large number of undecided voters, the path to victory remains unclear.

Here’s what the latest poll found:

D.C. mayoral race standings after latest poll

Among the 836 Democratic voters planning to vote in this month’s primary, D.C. Councilman Louis George leads McDuffie by 11 percentage points.

The two had a wide lead over the remaining candidates, including Vincent Orange, Gary Goodweather and Rini Sampath, all of whom received less than 5% of the vote.

But the survey found that 25% of likely voters are undecided, which could have a big impact on the primary.

“At least in theory, it gives Mr. McDuffie a chance to make a case and win over some persuasive voters,” said Rosell, dean of the Schall School of Policy and Government.

Ranked voting, introduced in this year’s election, is a measure overwhelmingly supported by Washington, D.C. voters in 2024, where voters choose their favorite candidate and then rank their favorite candidates. This helps determine the winner if no candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes.

However, polls showed that Louis George still held a double-digit lead even after taking second and third candidates into account.

Polls show Louis George’s lead is strongest among young voters and white voters, while McDuffie holds a 5-point lead among black voters.

Progressive candidate Louis George has a significant 45-point advantage among voters who identify as “very liberal.” Mr. McDuffie has an advantage with moderate and conservative voters.

Rozelle said Louis George is “clearly a candidate that has the support of the progressive left, and they see her as an agent of change in the city.”

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