Key takeaways from the Texas primary
Texas Sen. John Cornyn lost the Republican primary for U.S. Senate to the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, who supported Trump.
Days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Senate Republican runoff, a new poll shows him narrowly leading his Democratic challenger.
A new poll by Texas Poll shows state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate, leading Paxton in the race to become the next U.S. senator from Texas in November.
Talarico is seeking to become the first Democrat to win the seat since Sen. Bob Kruger in 1993. Paxton is trying to maintain Republican control of the seat.
The poll was conducted as both sides are working to solidify their political parties ahead of the November general election.
Talarico leads Paxton within poll’s margin of error
The poll was conducted from May 27th to May 28th among 1,670 people believed to be voting in the general election, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
According to the poll, Mr. Talarico leads Mr. Paxton 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election, with support from 72% of moderates and 64% of independents.
Another important finding was that Paxton failed to win over likely voters to vote for Cornyn in the runoff.
Almost a third (30%) said they would vote for Talarico, and 44% said they would vote for Paxton. The remaining 23% are undecided or say they will not vote.
Among Republican runoff voters who plan to support Talarico, 51% cite Paxton’s criminal activity and corruption as the main reason.
For context, Paxton was indicted in 2015 on three felony counts of securities fraud. The case was dismissed in March 2024. Paxton was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023, but was acquitted by the Texas Senate later that year.
Only 10% gave positive reasons for supporting Talarico, while the remaining 10% described themselves as passive voters and said they supported Talarico because they could not find an acceptable alternative. Another 7% cited Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump, and 5% expressed widespread disillusionment with the Republican Party.
Talarico is more likable than Paxton or Trump.
According to the poll, 38% of Texans view Paxton favorably. As noted in the poll, he is the second most unpopular major political figure after John Cornyn.
As for Trump, 48% of Texans support the president.
In contrast, Talarico is viewed favorably by 47% of Texans.
Affordability ranks as the top issue for Texas voters
Polls show that Texans cite prices and the cost of living as their top concern, with 23% of voters citing it as a priority, more than twice as many as any other issue.
This was followed by democracy and voting rights at 11%, immigration at 10%, health care and access at 9%, and economic growth and job creation at 7%.
Mateo Rosiles is a Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and local Texas newspapers. Do you have any news tips for him? Email us at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
