President Donald Trump’s campaign, seeking to draw new electoral maps and ensure Republican victory in November’s midterm elections, has launched an all-out redistricting war.
It began when the Texas Republican Party introduced new maps of district boundaries aimed at flipping Democratic seats. California responded with a map that could oust Republicans. Republicans held an early lead, but Democrats later gained the upper hand. Mid-decade redistricting was once a rare phenomenon.
On April 21, Virginia voters approved a sweeping redrawing of the state’s House districts, a move that could slow President Donald Trump’s push to expand the Republican majority in the House.
Republicans currently hold a three-seat majority in the House, so any shift in the balance of power could change President Trump’s course. Of course, voters still have to vote.
The current situation of factional power struggles across the country is as follows.
States currently undergoing redistricting in preparation for midterm elections
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Republicans could gain up to 5 seats in Texas
The U.S. Supreme Court’s December ruling allowed new maps drawn by Republicans. The ruling was 6-3, overturning a lower court that had found it likely discriminated against minorities.
More than 50 Democrats left the state in protest and temporarily blocked the map’s implementation, but Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ultimately signed it into law last August. The existing 2021 map, also drawn by Republicans, allows the party to already control 25 of the 38 seats.
Missouri could gain one Republican seat
Republican Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe approved new district boundaries in September, splitting Kansas City’s Democratic area and ensuring Republicans have an advantage in all but one of the state’s eight House seats. Some opponents of the measure are trying to force a referendum and others are filing lawsuits.
Republicans could gain up to two seats in Ohio
In October, the Ohio Redistricting Commission, made up of two Democrats and five Republicans, unanimously approved district boundaries that would give Republicans a better chance of flipping two Democratic-held seats. State law required a new map to be drawn in 2026 because the previous map was enacted without a Democratic vote. Republicans control 10 of the state’s 15 House seats.
North Carolina could gain one Republican seat
In October, the Republican majority in the North Carolina General Assembly approved maps targeting Democratic-controlled districts. Republicans could end up controlling 11 of the 14 House seats in battleground states. Democratic Gov. Josh Stein is not involved in the process, per state law.
Republicans could gain up to 5 seats in Florida
A special legislative session convened by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in April will focus on redistricting and could target three to five incumbent Democrats. Such efforts may lack sufficient legal support and would need to overcome legal barriers such as constitutional amendments to prevent partisan mapping.
Mr. DeSantis and Congress approved Republican-friendly maps in 2022, after which Republicans took control of four Democratic-held seats. Republicans currently hold 20 of Florida’s 28 seats.
Indiana redistricting attempt fails
The Republican-controlled Senate issued a rare rebuke to President Trump over his refusal to accept new maps aimed at unseating the state’s only Democratic representative. Republicans hold seven of Indiana’s nine House seats.
Kansas redistricting attempt fails
Republicans withdrew from a Kansas redistricting effort backed by President Trump after Republican House Speaker Dan Hawkins said there was not enough legislative support to overcome a veto from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Republicans hold three of the four seats in the state House of Representatives.
California could gain up to 5 Democratic seats
Last November, voters overwhelmingly approved a new district backed by Democratic lawmakers and Gov. Gavin Newsom. The new maps were a direct response to Abbott’s Texas redistricting, later approved by the Supreme Court, and were intended to fill up to five Republican-held seats. Democrats currently hold 43 of California’s 52 congressional districts.
Virginia could gain four Democratic seats
On April 21, Virginia voters approved new maps drawn by Democrats for a special election that could flip up to four Republican U.S. House seats. If successful, the reversal could wipe out all but one of the former Dominion’s Republican-leaning districts.
However, the Democratic Party still has challenges remaining. Republicans are pushing back, claiming Democratic lawmakers did not follow the law when approving the referendum. The state Supreme Court has allowed voting to proceed, but could decide to invalidate the referendum.
Democrats hold six of Virginia’s 11 House seats, giving them a potential 10-to-1 advantage in the midterm elections.
Utah could gain one Democratic seat
A Utah judge rejected the Republican map as illegally partisan and upheld an alternative plan that would likely shift one of the four Republican-held seats to Democrats. A federal appeals court panel on Feb. 23 rejected a Republican bid to block the new map, leaving Republicans’ next option with the U.S. Supreme Court.
Maryland’s redistricting efforts stall
On February 2, Democratic lawmakers proposed new district boundaries that would threaten the state’s only Republican-held seat. Democrats hold seven of Maryland’s eight House seats. But Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, said there is not enough support to move forward with a vote on the redistricting bill.
New York state could gain one Democratic seat
Republicans hope the U.S. Supreme Court will block New York State’s Independent Redistricting Commission from redefining the Staten Island district, which could give Democrats the seat in November.
On March 2, the conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court suspended that decision and granted a request by incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has promised to comply with Texas’ new maps, but New York state will likely block redistricting efforts until after the 2028 election. Democrats hold 19 of New York’s 26 House seats.
What is gerrymandering?
Merriam-Webster defines gerrymandering as: “The dividing (of a territorial unit) into electoral districts to give one political party an electoral majority in many districts while simultaneously concentrating the voting power of the opposition party in as few districts as possible.”
According to the Library of Congress, the term can be traced back to Elbridge Gerry, governor of Massachusetts in 1812. Jerry used his power to push through redistricting plans that kept his party in power. The resulting map looked like a salamander, so boston gazette They called it “gerriemandering.”
Is redistricting the same as gerrymandering?
Redistricting simply refers to the act of redrawing district boundaries based on U.S. Census data. As a state’s population increases, it gains more representatives. If we downsize, we will lose our representatives.
Each state has its own process for redistricting, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. This process typically occurs every 10 years. In most states, the state legislature draws the maps, and the governor has the power to veto them. Some states have established independent commissions to draw the maps to prevent politics from interfering with the process.
Gerrymandering is the process of intentionally redrawing election lines to sway election results in favor of a particular political party.
Republican strategist Karl Rove explained this concept in his 2010 book. wall street journal Column: “Those who control redistricting can control the legislature.”
President Trump told reporters on July 15, “With a very simple reshuffle, we’ll win five seats.”
“Cheer up, Donald Trump. California is bluer because of you,” Newsom said in an Aug. 1 post on the X show.
Contributed by: Joseph Ax, Andy Sullivan, Reuters; Philip M. Bailey, Jessica Estepa, Darren Samuelson and Sean J. Sullivan, america today
