What does Viktor Orbán’s ouster in Hungary mean for Trump, the populists?

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At first glance, the expected but shocking ouster of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long considered the poster child of European populists and Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, appeared to be a symbolic victory for the Trump Resistance. Vice President J.D. Vance was sent to the country for an 11-hour rally, but without success. An internet meme quickly sprang up from Trump opponents, capturing the “I’ll have what she’s got” moment from the movie When Harry Met Sally.

But more broadly, the end of Orbanism could bring major changes to Europe and the world order. The result could ultimately shift the stalled conversation over funding for the war in Ukraine, potentially shocking his often unsettled supporters in Moscow.

Mr Orbán’s 16 years in power came to an abrupt end on April 12 after challenger Péter Magyar persuaded a majority of Hungarians to support him in a closely watched election.

The result would displace a government whose domestic and international policies have influenced populist leaders in the region and beyond. Prime Minister Orbán’s self-proclaimed “illiberal democracy” ushered in what its critics and many experts call a political experiment. Defaming the media and the courts. crush the rights of minorities. Lead government contracts for your family’s business empire. And while they publicly condemn immigration, some countries and some industries secretly encourage it.

Here’s what Orbán’s defeat and Magyar’s victory mean for Trump supporters in Hungary, Europe, and Washington.

Rebuild Hungary’s dire economy

The Hungarian vote was about more than domestic politics. The results will be felt across borders. But the Magyars are first and foremost tasked with bringing about far-reaching changes in the Hungarian economy.

According to the European Commission, Hungary’s economic growth rate will be just 0.4% in 2025, well behind fellow European Union member Poland’s 3.6%, for example. Inflation is also rising faster than wages, eroding living standards. At the same time, public services, especially health care and education, have been steadily declining. Meanwhile, Orbán and his inner circle have become noticeably richer, and most single-government bid contracts are now concentrated among a narrow set of recipients.

“The situation in Hungary is that inflation is so high and the economy is so bad that people can’t afford to put food on the table,” said Mark Roscoe Loustau, a Budapest-based Eastern Europe expert who writes At the Edges, a regular newsletter about the region. “People are really feeling the pain of the economic downturn, hearing news stories about corruption and massive wealth inequality.”

Return to Europe

European diplomats hope Mr. Magyar’s victory will lead to a shift in the policies of Mr. Orbán, an increasingly unpopular and openly anti-European Union and anti-Ukraine leader. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted a video of himself calling Magyar with the caption: “Welcome to Europe!” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the results showed Europe was “resistant to Russian propaganda and other influences.”

“We want to be a country that is not a vassal state, a country that values ​​results and a country where people can rely on their government,” Magyar said in a victory speech on the banks of the Danube in Budapest. He was referring, in part, to Mr. Orbán’s persistent siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orban’s government has repeatedly blocked aid to Ukraine, resisted sanctions against Russia, and opposed Ukraine’s path to membership in both the European Union and NATO military alliance. During the election campaign, Prime Minister Orbán’s Fidesz party made Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a political scapegoat, blaming him for Hungary’s rising unemployment and economic malaise, and posting extraordinary images on billboards across the country accusing him of stealing Hungary’s finances.

Mr. Orbán’s defeat is a loss for Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump.

Mr. Orban’s defeat is a defeat for his international supporters, including President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump, who dispatched Mr. Vance to Hungary with promises of major U.S. investment just days before the vote.

There is no question that Mr. Trump has been a fan of Mr. Orban for many years. He has spoken positively of him as a strong and capable leader and praised his tough stance on immigration. Meanwhile, Orbán is one of Trump’s most vocal supporters in Europe. He supported Trump in the election, aligned closely with Trump’s positions on issues such as immigration and nationalism, and expressed deep skepticism of liberal international institutions.

Pavel Zerka, a senior policy researcher at the Berlin-based Council on European Relations think tank, said the election could be “a real turning point in Donald Trump’s culture wars in Europe.” Over the past two years, Trump has sought to project political influence across the continent by supporting ideological allies, attacking opponents and undermining trust in the European Union, he said. “Hungary under Mr. Orbán was central to that strategy,” Zerka said.

He added that the Magyars’ victory should be “a moment of confidence for pro-European forces across the continent”, showing that “they are not powerless in the face of President Trump’s political brand”. He said parties ideologically close to MAGA, such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany and France’s L’Assemblement National Party, may also be forced to reconsider how closely they want to work with Trump. “In the current climate, especially after his controversial foreign policy decisions, that relationship may be becoming more of a liability than an asset.”

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