After the ceasefire, oil prices fell and gas prices stabilized.
Oil prices have fallen following the ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran, impacting global market share. Gasoline prices are stable in the news.
- Gasoline prices are expected to fall due to the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran.
- During the recent Iran conflict, average gasoline prices in the United States rose by more than $1 a gallon.
- According to a recent poll, 69% of Americans are concerned about rising gas prices if fighting resumes.
Motorists reeling from soaring gas prices during the U.S. war with Iran are wondering how long it will take for prices to come down now that the two countries have agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis at Gasbuddy, said oil and gas prices were already showing signs of falling following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 7. However, on April 8, reports surfaced that Iran would re-close the Strait of Hormuz, which has been linked to soaring gasoline prices in the past, following an attack by the Israeli military.
The national average gasoline price rose to $4.16 per gallon on April 8, according to the AAA Auto Club. That figure is up from the national average of $3.12 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. launched its first military strike against Iran.
“Gasoline prices could start reversing by a few cents a day across the country within 48 hours,” DeHaan told the X-Post on the evening of April 7, after President Trump announced the cease-fire agreement. “Diesel prices may lag a bit, but as things stand, diesel is no longer likely to hit a record. The national average for gasoline could fall below $4 in about 1 to 2 weeks, and diesel could rise above $5 in 6 to 8 weeks.”
A new poll released April 7 by the Pew Research Center found that 69% of Americans said they were concerned that gasoline and fuel prices would rise if hostilities between the United States and Iran resumed after a two-week ceasefire.
However, De Haan cautioned in an April 7 blog post that “the market remains very sensitive to developments in the region.” He said the short-term reduction in U.S. gasoline prices could be reversed if hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resume after a temporary ceasefire.
“Until we see clear progress towards reopening the Strait and achieving sustained de-escalation, oil prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile as geopolitical developments continue to dominate market direction,” he said.
How are gasoline prices determined?
“Gasoline prices reflect the costs of the entire fuel supply chain, from crude oil production to refining, distribution and retail,” the American Petroleum Institute, which works with the natural gas and oil industries, said in a post on its website.
“The biggest factor is the price of crude oil traded on global markets,” the group said. “Refining costs, distribution and marketing costs, and federal and state taxes also impact the price you ultimately pay at the pump.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the price you see at the pump consists of:
- Oil price: 51%
- Refining cost: 20%
- Federal and state taxes: 18%
- Distribution and marketing: 20%
In the case of diesel prices, the authorities classify the composition of published prices as follows:
- Oil price: 41%
- Distribution and marketing: 24%
- Refining cost: 18%
- Federal and state taxes: 17%
What happened to gasoline prices at the end of previous military conflicts?
On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking more than 200 hostages. In response, Israel declared war aimed at eradicating the group and began the Gaza War, which continued intermittently until a ceasefire negotiated between the United States, Israel, and Hamas in October 2025.
The average price for a gallon of regular gas in October 2023 was $3.61, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By October 2025, the average price of gasoline was $3.06.
Gasoline price trends over the next three months are as follows:
- November 2025: $3.05
- December 2025: $2.89
- January 2026: $2.81
What happened to gas prices at other uneasy points in recent history?
Here’s what happened to gas prices in the month before and after some of the unrest in recent history.
Second Iraq War begins (March 2003)
- Pre-event price: $1.61
- Price immediately after the event: $1.63
- Price after 1 month: $1.58
9/11 attacks (September 2001)
- Pre-event price: $1.42
- Price immediately after the event: $1.52
- Price after 1 month: $1.31
First Iraq War begins (August 1990)
- Pre-event price: None
- Post-event price (September 1990): $1.26
- Price after 1 month: $1.34
