“If Democrats can win in Trump’s backyard, they can definitely win anywhere in America,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said on social media.
Trump’s support will be tested in key elections
President Donald Trump’s political power is under close scrutiny as politicians consider the power of his support.
Democrats won a symbolic victory in a Florida congressional district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago mansion, bringing their fight against the president’s policies closer to victory and scoring another victory that shows the party is doing well in red areas and has momentum heading into the midterm elections.
The district, which Mr. Trump won by 11 points in a special election on March 24, is the latest sign of a possible blue wave as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress from Republicans in November and check Mr. Trump’s presidency. Democrats have struggled in recent years in Florida, which recently elected Democratic mayors in Miami and Boca Raton for the first time in decades.
But it was especially noteworthy that he rebuked Trump in his hometown of Palm Beach, a place that holds special significance as the center of Republican circles. In Florida House District 87, the Democratic candidate won by 2.4 percentage points after the former Republican won by 19 points in 2024.
“If Democrats can win in Trump’s backyard, they can definitely win anywhere in America. Onward to November!” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said on social media. Democrats also have a lead in the March 24 special election for the Tampa-area state Senate seat, with Trump leading by 7 percentage points, but The Associated Press has not yet called a race within the scope of a recount.
There are signs that the domestic political situation will be tough for the Republican Party amid the president’s declining approval ratings in constituencies where Democrats continue to win by large margins over Trump.
Opponents of President Trump are working hard to rein in his administration after a destructive second term that generated strong opposition, with critics accusing him of aggressive immigration crackdowns, use of the military and obsession with perceived political opponents.
But some observers cautioned against reading too much into the low-turnout special election. Only 29% of registered voters cast ballots in the 87th District election, and the Democratic Party won by a margin of just under 800 votes.
“This is a small district and low turnout,” conservative commentator Scott Jennings said on CNN, adding that people should be careful about extrapolating relatively narrow wins in races like this to “what could happen nationally.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Democratic Party is in great shape
Democrat Emily Gregory’s victory in Florida’s 87th House District is just the latest in a series of strong performances for the party in 2025 and 2026.
Since Trump returned to power last year, Democrats have flipped 30 state House seats and won big victories everywhere from gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia to lower-profile races like the Georgia commission that regulates public utilities, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
Democrats flipped seats in states Trump easily won, including Texas, Iowa and Florida. Even in races where Democrats lost, Republicans are concerned that their party has far outperformed Trump’s margin of victory.
Marc Short, who served as Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff during Trump’s first administration, said in a March 24 social media post reacting to data on Democratic wins in this year’s special elections that the numbers signaled “a nine-alarm trigger for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.”
Is Emily Gregory’s win particularly significant?
The party is especially excited about Gregory’s win in a favorable environment for Democrats.
A local victory for Trump in a heavily Republican district could be a major public relations coup for the party, which had hoped to send a message to the public that voters who live in the president’s closest neighborhoods reject him.
“President Donald Trump’s neighbors have sent a very clear message: They are furious and ready for change,” Martin said in a news release.
Mr. Gregory’s victory could help Democrats raise money and attract candidates. In an interview with MS NOW, Gregory encouraged those who oppose Trump to “step off the sidelines.”
“Good luck. Stand back,” Gregory told the candidates. “To make a change, it’s enough to get off the sidelines. If you want the world to look different, you have to go out and change the world. I think we’ve learned over the last few years that no one is going to save us. We have to save ourselves.”
President Trump failed to save Republican candidates
Another worrying sign for Florida Republicans is that President Trump’s late involvement in the 87th Congressional District race wasn’t enough to get Republican candidate John Maples over the finish line.
President Trump weighed in the day before the election, writing on social media on March 23, “We have a very important special election tomorrow,” and declaring, “John Maples has my full and complete support!”
If Trump is not on the ballot, there are questions about whether his voters will show up to vote in November. His efforts to rally people on social media have not been enough in several recent elections, even in Republican-leaning seats like District 87.
But President Trump voted by mail even though he described it as “mail fraud” in a speech in Memphis this week.
President Trump’s low approval rating
The Democratic Party’s strength at the polls comes as President Trump’s approval ratings have slumped.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found that only 36% of Americans are satisfied with the president’s performance, marking the lowest approval rating for a second term. Most Americans oppose his decision to attack Iran and give him low marks for his economic response.
Gregory emphasized that there is growing concern about the fate of the economy, with gas prices soaring due to the Iran war, major stock indexes falling, and many Americans still having serious concerns about the cost of living.
“I focused on the issues that matter most to Florida families,” Gregory told CNN shortly before the campaign was called. “Everyone is feeling the affordability crisis, and when Florida families are in need, the last thing they need is $4 gas.”
