Will the 2026 Women’s NCAA Final Four be a repeat of last year?
USAT’s Sam Cardona Norberg and Megan Hall share their thoughts on the No. 1 seed for this year’s women’s NCAA March Madness tournament.
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The No. 1 ranked UConn Huskies are undefeated and are the overwhelming favorites to win this year’s women’s NCAA Tournament.
But recent history shows that No. 1 overall seeds like the Huskies often don’t win it all in March Madness. Since 2017, the top seed has won three national championships: Baylor in 2019 and South Carolina in 2022 and 2024.
So if UConn upsets and confuses the sportsbooks, which other team out of the 68 teams has the best chance of winning it all?
Here are some strong candidates.
south carolina
All 15 national champions since 2010 have ranked in the top 10 in Her Hoop’s statistical rating, all but four have ranked in the top 30 in rebounding, and all but two have ranked in the top 20 in effective field goal defense. More simply, national title winners are typically efficient on both ends of the floor, strong on the glass, and solid defensively.
This season, South Carolina ranks 4th in HHS rating, 15th in rebounding and 6th in EFG defense. The Shamcocks check all the boxes in terms of looking like a national championship contender.
The NCAA Tournament is also often determined by great coaches, and few teams have a better coach than three-time national champion Dawn Staley. She will be motivating her team to take another leap forward in March, especially after the Siamcocks missed out on the SEC Tournament title last season and lost to UConn in the national championship.
University of California Los Angeles
The Bruins proved their worth in the deepest conference in sports this season. The Big Ten received 12 bids to March Madness, more than any other league, and the Bruins posted a perfect 18-0 record in regular-season conference play, catapulting their way to the Big Ten Tournament title with a 51-point victory over Iowa for the championship in Indianapolis.
Cori Close is aiming to lead UCLA to the Final Four for the second straight season. The Bruins led the nation in Quad 1 this year with 19 wins and earned the nation’s highest WAB (wins above the bubble) rating. UCLA also had the strongest non-conference schedule, surviving with one loss to Texas in Las Vegas.
The Bruins are anchored by Lauren Betts, likely a top-five WNBA draft pick, surrounded by three quality guards. Gianna Niepkens is having a 50-40-90 season, and Kiki Rice and Gabriela Jaquez are also flirting with that split. UCLA has all the makings of a team that can compete for a national title.
Vanderbilt
The Commodores have SEC Coach of the Year, Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year honorees in Shea Ralph, Mikayla Blakes and Aubrey Galvan. Blakes led the nation in points with 27 points per game, Galvan ranked 16th in the nation with 5.9 assists per game, and Ralph led Vanderbilt to its most wins in a single season since 2007.
Vanderbilt University also has some impressive wins on its resume, with regular season wins over LSU, Michigan State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, and Texas State. The Commodores couldn’t seem to find a way to beat Ole Miss — the Rebels beat Vanderbilt twice this season on neutral courts — but Vanderbilt proved it was a true contender.
The Commodores’ defense is a bit of a concern, but they are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and the Blakes looked unguardable at times. Vanderbilt could take his playmaking to new heights in March Madness.
duke
The Blue Devils entered this season as the favorites to win the ACC championship after advancing to the Elite Eight last season, but got off to a tough start with a 3-6 non-conference record. Amidst the critics, head coach Carla Lawson made some adjustments to the rotation, and Duke ended its winning streak at 17. The Blue Devils won the ACC regular season title and the conference tournament, entering the NCAA Tournament as the most dangerous No. 3 seed.
Lawson, who is also the head coach of Team USA, which just went undefeated in the FIBA World Cup qualifying tournament in Puerto Rico, doesn’t have a deep bench, but the seven players in her rotation are pretty good. Led by All-American Toby Fournier, who averages 17.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, Duke ranks fifth in defensive rating and is one of the best defensive teams in the country.
There are five other players on the roster who shoot over 30 percent from 3-point land, and two senior guards, Taina Mare and Ashron Jackson, each average at least 11 points and four assists per game. It’s hard for Duke to win when they force their opponents to make mistakes or play the game their way.
