Iran war: How high can oil prices rise?
The escalating war between Israel, the United States and Iran is driving up oil and gas prices and causing widespread disruption to global energy markets.
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- Gasoline prices have increased following the US military attack on Iran.
- The increase follows a significant one-day price increase following the strike announcement.
- Historically, gas prices have responded differently to global conflict and unrest.
Gasoline prices have risen since the United States and Israel launched a joint military offensive against Iran, leaving many motorists wondering when they will be able to fill up.
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. on Wednesday, March 4, was $3.19, according to the AAA Auto Club. That’s up from an average of $2.97 a week ago on Feb. 25 and an average of $3.09 on March 4, 2025, the group said.
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on
With all of this in mind, the USA TODAY Cars team looked at average gas prices from other times of global unrest to see how related spikes have occurred since then.
What happened to gas prices the last time there was a war in the Middle East?
On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking more than 200 hostages. In response, Israel declared war and began the Israel-Hamas War aimed at eradicating the organization.
The average price for a gallon of regular gas in October 2023 was $3.61, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline price trends over the next three months are as follows:
- November 2023: $3.31
- December 2023: $3.13
- January 2024: $3.08
What happened to gas prices when the Afghanistan war ended?
In August 2021, the United States withdrew troops from Afghanistan, ending a 20-year war linked to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
The average price of gasoline in August 2021 was $3.15 per gallon, according to EIA.
Gasoline price trends over the next three months are as follows:
- September 2021: $3.17
- October 2021: $3.29
- November 2021: $3.39
What happened to gas prices at other uneasy points in recent history?
Here’s what happened to gas prices in the month before and after some of the unrest in recent history.
Second Iraq War begins (March 2003)
- Pre-event price: $1.61
- Price immediately after the event: $1.63
- Price after 1 month: $1.58
September 11th Attacks (September 2021)
- Pre-event price: $1.42
- Price immediately after the event: $1.52
- Price after 1 month: $1.31
Oklahoma City Federal Building Bombing (April 1995)
- Pre-event price: $1.07
- Price immediately after the event: $1.11
- Price after 1 month: $1.17
World Trade Center Bombing (February 1993)
- Pre-event price: $1.06
- Price immediately after the event: $1.05
- Price after 1 month: $1.05
First Iraq War begins (August 1990)
- Pre-event price: None
- Post-event price (September 1990): $1.26
- Price after 1 month: $1.34
