Hegseth says on Iran: ‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless.
Army Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation against Iran is not “open-ended” like it is in Iraq.
A mysterious Polymarket user made a series of bets that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would be ousted hours before he was killed in a US and Israeli airstrike on Saturday, February 28th, making more than $553,000.
The account, which calls itself “Magamiman,” was created in October 2024 and repeatedly bet on US and Israeli military action against Iran. One bet alone, predicting that the US would attack Iran by February 28th, generated a profit of $431,146.
The deal has reignited the debate over prediction markets, with critics warning that the platforms could allow people with advance or inside knowledge of military operations to profit from wars.
The timing of the bet drew immediate scrutiny from lawmakers. “It’s insane that this is legal. Those around Trump are profiting from war and death,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Connecticut, wrote of X, adding that he plans to introduce legislation to ban such gambling.
The White House denied that anyone associated with President Donald Trump was behind the account. “The only special interest guiding the Trump Administration’s decision-making is the best interests of the American people,” the White House said in a statement to USA TODAY.
The controversy arose amid close ties between Polymarket and the president’s family. In August 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture firm 1789 Capital invested millions of dollars in Polymarket. In early 2025, the Trump administration halted two federal investigations into polymarkets that had been launched under the Biden administration.
Betting on Iran is not an isolated case. In January, another Polymarket user turned around $32,000 into more than $436,000 betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power by the end of the month. The gamble paid off when the U.S. military captured Mr. Maduro on January 3 and extradited him to the United States for federal prosecution.
The same account also won bets predicting that U.S. troops would enter Venezuela, that the U.S. would invade, and that Trump would use military force, all of which were in the bettor’s favor.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
Contributor: Michelle Del Rey, america today
Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for USA TODAY. Contact us at fernando.cervantes@gannett.com and follow us at X @fern_cerv_.
