How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? See the Groundhog Day forecaster.
USA TODAY dug into the mystery of the Groundhog Day prophecy and investigated how other groundhogs compare to Punxsutawney Phil.
Punxsutawney Phil gets a lot of attention for National Groundhog Day, but many of the animals responsible for his weather predictions have proven far more accurate in their predictions.
Phil is from Pennsylvania, but other popular groundhog forecasters include Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck, Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee, and New York’s Staten Island Chuck.
According to Groundhog-day.com, there are a total of 88 weather forecasting groundhogs in the United States and Canada, where Groundhog Day is primarily celebrated. groundhog-day.com bills itself as the leading data source for the February 2nd holiday.
That includes “alternative” groundhogs, which the site says include other species, stuffed groundhogs, stuffed animals and people in costumes.
In 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ranked the accuracy of these groundhogs and found that many outperformed Punxsutawney Phil.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
NOAA used annual U.S. March temperature averages from 2005 to 2024 to grade and rank each groundhog based on accuracy.
According to NOAA data, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions from early spring to winter were accurate only 35% of the time.
Which groundhog is the most accurate?See list
In addition to Phil, NOAA ranked 19 other annual groundhog forecasters on the criteria that they must have been making predictions for at least 20 years as of February 2024.
Here are the results:
- staten island chuck -85%
- General Beauregard Lee -80%
- Lander Lil – 75%
- concord charlie – 65%
- gertie the groundhog – 65%
- jimmy the groundhog – 60%
- woodstock willie – 60%
- buckeye chuck – 55%
- french creek freddy – 55%
- Malvern Mel – 55%
- Octoraro Orphy –- 52.63%
- dunkirk dave – 50%
- Holtsville Hull – 50%
- poor richard – 50%
- groundhog uni – 47.37%
- Shunogadar Sammy – 38.89%
- punxsutawney phil – 35%
- woodchuck woody – 35%
- mojave max – twenty five%
Melina Khan is USA TODAY’s national trends reporter. Contact her at melina.khan@usatoday.com.
(This story has been updated to include video.)
