President Trump says US may be ‘confused’ by upcoming SCOTUS ruling on tariffs
President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over the US trade deficit could be ruled illegal by SCOTUS as early as January 14th.
- President Trump again discussed sending $2,000 checks to Americans from customs revenues.
- The legal channel and funding for the checks are in question because Congress is in charge of spending.
- A single check could cost $600 billion, but revenue from tariffs is expected to be only $300 billion a year.
President Donald Trump has talked again about $2,000 duty refund checks, but questions remain about their funding and legality.
Asked by New York Times reporters when Americans would receive the checks they’ve written over the past few months, Trump mentioned the $1,776 “warrior dividend” sent to troops during the holidays.
“The tariffs are very large,” he told the Times in an exclusive roundtable on Jan. 7. “It’s coming in, so at some point you’ll be able to put out $2,000. It’ll be near the end of the year.” A transcript of that conversation was posted on January 11th.
However, if tariff rebate checks were distributed on the same basis as coronavirus stimulus checks, tariff revenue would only be expected to be about $300 billion a year, but the cost of one round would be as high as $600 billion. That’s if the U.S. Supreme Court doesn’t rule against President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.
“Do we not need the cooperation of Congress on that?”
The Times asked if Trump needed Congressional action to send the checks, but Trump seemed to think otherwise.
“No, we don’t believe it. It’s coming in from other sources,” he said.
But the power of the purse remains with Congress. For example, the stimulus checks sent during the pandemic were passed by Congress and then signed by President Trump.
The “warrior dividend” that President Trump referred to when asked about the tariff rebate checks did not come from customs revenue, but from military housing funds that Congress appropriated to the Pentagon in the mammoth “One Big Beautiful Bill” that Trump passed last summer.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett similarly said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on Dec. 21 that the president intends to “put a proposal before Congress” on the 2026 dividend check and pull the money from sources other than tariffs.
“We get taxes, we get tariffs, we get revenue from a lot of places, and Congress decides how to spend those money,” he told Brennan. “That’s diversion. So this has to be diversion money.”
Tariff rebate check idea previously introduced in Congress
Congressional support may be needed, but Congress has not acted on a similar proposal.
In July, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) introduced the American Worker Rebate Act. It would give at least $600 of the revenue generated by the tariffs to qualifying individuals.
The program was introduced shortly after Trump signaled support for the idea, telling reporters in July that he was “thinking about rebates,” but said he was prioritizing paying down the national debt.
Hawley’s bill was referred to the Finance Committee but received no further action.
Supreme Court to decide whether Trump administration needs to return tariffs
In November, the Supreme Court heard arguments over whether the president can impose significant tariffs on most imported goods. Lower courts found that Trump overreached when he invoked a 1977 state of emergency law that imposed broad tariffs.
If the high court rules against the president, the government could be required to return some of the customs revenue it has already collected. An opinion could be issued as early as January 14th.
“If the Supreme Court rules against the United States on this national security bonanza, we’re screwed!” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on January 12, saying the United States would need to return “hundreds of billions of dollars” in revenue collected from tariffs and other sources to “repay” private investments.
Can the US afford to issue $2,000 duty refund checks?
In 2025, President Trump’s sweeping tariffs raised about $200 billion in additional tariff revenue for the federal government.
Trump has also said that the tariff proceeds will be used to reduce the deficit and support national defense, and Times reporters asked Trump if the tariffs would cover the cost of the rebate checks.
“This country is also experiencing tremendous growth,” Trump responded, according to the transcript. “We have customs revenue and it’s huge.”
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit that aims to educate the public on issues of fiscal policy impacts, found in a November analysis that a $2,000 dividend would cost about $600 billion if it were designed like the coronavirus stimulus checks. Tariffs are expected to bring in about $300 billion a year in revenue, meaning the annual dividend could be twice as much as the tariffs.
Contributions: Joey Garrison, Mary Walrath-Holdridge, Mike Snider, Michelle Del Rey, Maureen Groppe, Bart Jansen, Aysha Bagchi, Francesca Chambers, USA TODAY
Kinsey Crowley is a Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Please contact KCrowley@usatodayco.com. follow her X (Twitter), blue sky and TikTok.
