The Patriots win the AFC East. Steelers failure

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USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates on the NFL’s evolving playoff picture each week during the 2025 regular season. We typically start on Sunday afternoon and work our way through the rest of the week (Monday and Thursday games, or Saturday games if applicable). And when the holidays are over, I’ll watch it then too.

What the hell happened? What does that mean? As the seven-team brackets for each conference begin to take shape, what are the relevant factors (and perhaps the tiebreakers)? All will be explained and analyzed leading up to postseason berths being determined on Sunday, January 4th.

Here’s how week 17 went:

y − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West Champions: After surviving a matchup against the Chiefs on Christmas night, a win in Week 18 would earn Denver the top seed…but not in Week 17. Saturday’s loss to the Bolts ended the Broncos’ first district championship in 10 years, but it was also the last time they won a Super Bowl. Remaining schedule: vs. charger

y − 2. New England Patriots (13-3), AFC East Champions: After defeating the Jets on Sunday, Buffalo lost to Philadelphia to win its first division title since 2019. The Pats are just a tiebreaker for first place in the conference, and a win for the Pats and a loss for Denver could earn them the top seed in Week 18. remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins.

x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), AFC South leader: They have won eight in a row but need one more to lock up the division. A win combined with losses to Denver and New England would clinch Duval County’s No. 1 seed. If Houston loses, a win will keep them in the AFC South. remaining schedule: At Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7); AFC North Leader: They missed out on a district championship in Cleveland. They have to beat Baltimore in Week 18. remaining schedule: vs. Ravens

x − 5. Houston Texans (11-5), Wild Card No. 1: They have won nine of 10 games, including an eight-game winning streak after Saturday’s win over the Chargers, but have yet to overtake fellow fast-rising Jacksonville for first place in the AFC South. Still, with Saturday’s win over the Bolts, Houston at least clinched a wild-card berth. Houston has a chance to win its third straight division title, and the Jags only need a win in Week 18. With the Texans’ victory, Indianapolis was officially eliminated. They currently sit in the No. 5 seed after overwhelming the Chargers and Bills. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts

x − 6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), Wild Card No. 2: Saturday’s stumble against Houston ended their quest to rally for an AFC West title. The Bolts will need to chart a path to the postseason as a wild card contender. Remaining schedule: at the broncos

x − 7. Buffalo Bills (11-5), Wild Card No. 3: Sunday’s close loss to Philadelphia ended any hopes of winning a sixth consecutive AFC East title. The Bills fell to seventh place because the Chargers had a two-game advantage (5 wins, 1 loss) in the common game tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets

9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) In the hunt: (With the loss, the Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC.) Saturday night’s win at Green Bay and loss to Pittsburgh will put the Steelers and Ravens in contention for the AFC North crown in Week 18. remaining schedule: At the Steelers

x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3), NFC West Leaders: A win in Week 18 will earn them the top seed in the division and the NFC. remaining schedule: with the 49ers

y − 2. Chicago Bears (11-4), NFC North Champions: Green Bay’s loss Saturday night was doubly sweet because it also clinched the district title for the Bears. If Chicago wins and Seattle loses in Week 18, the Bears will receive the No. 1 seed. remaining schedule: 49ers vs. Lions

y – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), NFC East Champions: They won’t be able to get into the top spot, but they could still reach the 2nd seed…which led to them making it to the Super Bowl last season. By defeating Washington in Week 16, Philadelphia became the first team to finish Division I this season in 2025, and the first team to win a championship. this Since splitting 21 years ago, the company has split several years in a row. remaining schedule: vs. Commanders

4. Carolina Panthers (8-8) NFC South Leader: They missed a chance to finish the division on Sunday. The loss to Tampa Bay in Week 18 will still have an effect. remaining schedule:At the Buccaneers

x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4), 1st Wild Card: A win would give the Niners a sweep over Seattle on the final weekend of the regular season and clinch the top seed. If we keep winning, we won’t be leaving the building again this season. That means we’ll be playing Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium. Last Monday, they topped the Rams in NFC West play with a 4-1 record. remaining schedule: vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4), Wildcard #2: They became the first team to qualify for the playoffs, but were unable to sweep Seattle, losing the inside track to gain home-field advantage and receiving a bye in the first round. remaining schedule: Falcons vs. Cardinals

× − 7. green bay packers (9-6-1), Wildcard #3: The Lions’ loss on Christmas night left a battered puck on the field. But with Saturday night’s loss to Baltimore, Green Bay is guaranteed the No. 7 seed and will not play another game at Lambeau Field this season. remaining schedule: At Vikings

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) in the hunt: (They’re actually ranked No. 11 in the overall NFC standings because they’re worse than the Vikings, Lions, and Cowboys.) A loss to lowly Miami would have eliminated them…if the Panthers hadn’t also lost and bailed out the Bucks. The teams will meet in Week 18, and if Atlanta loses one of its final two games, the winner will take the NFC South crown. If all three clubs finish 8-9, the tiebreaker would go to Carolina, as the Panthers’ 3-1 record against the other two teams takes precedence. remaining schedule: vs. Panthers

Week 18 NFL Playoff Decision Scenario (Incomplete)

Denver earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the following results:

▶Win

New England earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the following results:

▶ Victory + Broncos loss

Jacksonville clinch AFC No. 1 seed:

▶ Win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss

Jacksonville clinch AFC South:

▶Win

Houston clinch AFC South:

▶ Victory + Jaguars loss

Pittsburgh won the AFC North with the following results:

▶ Win or draw?

baltimore clinch With AFC North:

▶Win

Carolina wins NFC South:

▶ Win or draw?

Tampa Bay wins NFC South:

▶ Win + 1 Falcons loss (either Week 17 or Week 18)

Week 17 NFL Playoff Decision Scenarios

Seattle clinched the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with the following results:

▶ Rams loss or tie + 49ers-Bears tie

NFL teams will be eliminated from playoff contention in 2025

▶ New York Giants

▶ Arizona Cardinals

▶ New Orleans Saints

▶ Tennessee Titans

▶ Las Vegas Raiders

▶ Commander Washington

▶ Atlanta Falcons

▶ New York Jets

▶ Cleveland Browns

▶ Cincinnati Bengals

▶ Kansas City Chiefs

▶ Minnesota Vikings

▶ Miami Dolphins

▶ Dallas Cowboys

▶ Detroit Lions

▶ Indianapolis Colts

× – qualify for the playoffs

yes – clinched division

z- Secure home field advantage and win a 1st round bye

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