Republicans may breathe a sigh of relief that disaster has been avoided, but Tennessee’s 7th Congressional election is a red flag for 2026.
2025 Tennessee Special Election Results: Matt Van Epps Wins
Republican Matt Van Epps avoided an upset and won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. What does this mean for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party?
WASHINGTON – Republicans avoided a major Democratic upset in a high-profile Tennessee special legislative election, but the race was surprisingly close in a predominantly red district.
Still, while Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief that they avoided disaster, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional special election is yet another warning sign for Republicans about the possibility of a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections.
Here are the key takeaways from Republican Matt Van Epps’ victory over Democrat Aftin Behn.
Democrats continue to dominate nationally
Van Epps, a military veteran and former state government official, defeated Van Epps, a liberal Democratic state representative, by 9 points (54% to 45%) in the Middle Tennessee district, where Trump had a 22-point lead in the 2024 presidential election. He will replace retiring Congressman Mark Green (R-Tenn.).
This represents a significant 13-point swing in the Democratic direction and continues a pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections this year.
In five other special elections to fill U.S. House vacancies this year, Democrats beat 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ performance by 17 points (Arizona’s 7th District), 23 points (Florida’s 1st District), 16 points (Florida’s 6th District), 28 points (Texas’ 18th District), and 17 points. (11th District of Virginia).
Republicans publicly downplayed the changes in Tennessee, claiming the results were not as close as some polls suggested. But the larger trend is a troubling sign for Republicans as they seek to maintain their current 219-213 House majority in 2026.
At the same time, Democrats are increasingly confident that a double-digit swing in electoral votes nationwide could give them control of the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
Trump’s Republican rescue mission was a success
Van Epps needed Trump’s direct participation in the race (he held multiple teletown halls for Van Epps) and millions of dollars in outside funding led by the Trump-affiliated MAGA PAC to keep the Democratic Party’s lead at 13 points.
The money funded attack ads depicting Mr. Behn as a radical liberal to boost Republican turnout.
Those efforts appear to have paid off. The race ended up with midterm-level turnout, far exceeding the low turnout totals of most special elections. Mr. Behn stood to benefit from a race where voter turnout was low and Democrats gained momentum. But in the end, about 180,000 Tennesseans voted, comparable to the roughly 181,000 who voted in Tennessee’s 7th District midterm election in 2022, which Republicans easily won.
Mr. Behn appears to have won a majority in early voting, reflecting a national trend in recent election cycles where Democrats vote early while Republicans wait until Election Day. But Mr. Van Epps, backed by an aggressive last-minute push from Mr. Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other national Republicans, took advantage of the massive turnout of Republicans on Election Day to carry him to victory.
While Republican efforts to nationalize the race have worked in Tennessee’s ultra-conservative 7th District, the same formula is unlikely to work in battleground states where Trump is less popular. According to a Gallup poll released on November 28, President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest in the United States during his second term.
The quality of Democratic candidates is debated.
Republicans were able to continue their attack on Behn because the former community organizer and progressive activist provided much of the material.
Mr. Behn, an active user of social media and online videos, has given the Republican Party a series of offensive statements in an effort to galvanize the Republican base.
Republicans responded to the onslaught of ads, labeling Behn a “far-left lunatic” and “Tennessee’s AOC” and highlighting her past social media comments questioning whether police should be disbanded, saying the visibility of religion in the statehouse “makes her uncomfortable” and commenting that “men and women” can have children.
Democratic voters in October chose Behn by a narrow margin over three less polarizing candidates: state Reps. Beau Mitchell and Vincent Dixie, and Nashville businessman Darden Copeland.
Some argue that a more moderate candidate would have done better against Van Epps. But Monday Morning’s quarterback ignores Mr. Behn’s success in boosting turnout in the Democratic base, especially in Democratic stronghold Nashville, far outpacing Ms. Harris’ performance in 2024.
The debate over the qualifications of candidates highlights a major dilemma among Democrats over who to field in the 2026 midterm elections.
Mr. Behn does not fit the same centrist profile as Abigail Spanberger of Virginia or Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey. They won a lopsided double-digit victory in the Nov. 4 gubernatorial election and helped deliver a strong Democratic performance.
At the same time, much of the energy within the party shifted to the left, as evidenced by the victory of New York Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani on the same election night.
Democrats will need to carefully assess what type of Democratic Party will function in each election campaign.
X Contact Joey Garrison at @joeygarrison.
