The Senate took the first major step toward ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history Sunday night, voting 60-40 to advance a deal that could reopen the government within days. But even if lawmakers finalize a deal this week, travelers shouldn’t expect the nation’s airports to return to normal immediately.
Flights have already been cut at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports to make up for a shortage of air traffic controllers, and experts warn the disruption will continue long after the closures officially end.
“There will be massive disruption to the air transportation system across the country,” Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group, an independent travel analysis firm, told USA TODAY. And the effects could last longer than the closure.
Impact on flights: ‘Connecting passengers may be at further risk’
The Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration ordered 40 airports to reduce flights by 10%, starting Nov. 7 with a 4% reduction in flights.
“Flight reductions will be phased in in stages,” Harteveldt said. “It will start on Friday with a 4% reduction in flights, and increase from there in stages to 10%.”
Some airlines cancel flights in advance to avoid congestion at the airport on the day.
“Airlines need to consider the flow of aircraft and crew when canceling flights. It’s not just canceling one flight; that aircraft and crew are supposed to continue later in the day,” Ahmed Abdelghani, associate dean for research at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University’s David B. O’Malley College of Business, told USA TODAY. “Thus, airlines with more round-trip loop flights in their schedules are in a better position to deal with cancellations. If you cancel both flights in a loop, the aircraft and crew will be placed in a suitable location later. This will avoid stranding the aircraft and crew, which will enable recovery.”
Affected airports include hubs such as Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Chicago O’Hare International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport, but Shai Gilad, a professor of management practice at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, said travelers at other airports will also be affected.
“Transit passengers are potentially at even higher risk and are likely to experience higher fares, fewer flights and fewer options,” and their layovers may be significantly longer than usual, he said, noting that airlines may raise prices to make up for lost revenue. Gilad has been an airline pilot for 10 years and his areas of expertise include the aviation industry.
Airlines are trying to minimize the impact on travelers, and Harteveld compared the challenge to dismantling Humpty Dumpty without breaking it into 1,000 pieces.
“Even though the government says they have 36 hours or so to start dismantling their carefully constructed flight schedules, that doesn’t give airlines a lot of time,” he said, noting that in addition to staffing, airlines are juggling gates, maintenance schedules and passenger demand. He said it is fortunate that demand is relatively low at the moment, which means flights have already been reduced compared to the summer. “So many airlines’ flights are often close to full or completely full, leaving airlines with little flexibility.”
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The effects of cuts continue even after closures end.
Airlines could become even less flexible in the coming weeks.
“We have to remember that this is a reduction of up to 10% only based on staffing, but that doesn’t mean other types of delays won’t occur, such as weather or mechanical issues,” Gilad said. “These types of disruptions will continue to occur, and reducing capacity…makes it harder to recover. That could create problems because there are fewer aircraft and fewer employees in the system to recover.”
He and Haldefeldt warned that depending on how long the cuts last, some Thanksgiving travel plans could be upended or at least changed.
“That could mean more traffic on the highways and perhaps other forms of transportation, or it could just mean people not being able to travel at all… and having to opt out of spending time with their families over the holidays,” Gilad said.
If people choose not to travel, there will be a downward impact, not only on airline and airport concessions that will be economically affected, but also on potentially fewer visitors at the destinations they travel to, Hadefeld said.
This situation may be avoided if the shutdown ends early. But there are already lasting effects.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told CNN that the number of air traffic controllers retiring has increased since the federal government shutdown began on October 1. He added that the FAA is short 1,000 to 2,000 air traffic controllers. The FAA reported early Sunday that there were staffing issues at 12 towers.
“I paid experienced controllers to keep their jobs and not retire,” Duffy said. “Whereas we used to retire about four controllers the day before a shutdown, we are now retiring up to 15 to 20 controllers a day.”
Hopper analyst Haley Berg said, “This capacity restriction will not be lifted the same day the shutdown ends. The proviso is that this capacity reduction will not be lifted until air traffic control and the FAA are operating at staffing levels…Even if these employees are paid and furloughed, it may not be lifted immediately.”
Abdelghani agrees: “Even if the government reopens, the recovery will still take time. Capacity cannot absorb everyone, so some passengers will have to be refunded and removed from the system. The severity and duration of this reduction will determine how long the recovery will take.”
