3 reasons why the 2025 election could change US politics
Here are three reasons why the balance of power could shift in the 2025 election and affect key figures in both parties.
Former President Barack Obama spoke in Virginia and New Jersey on November 1st, cheering on fellow Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, who are running for governor in those states.
President Obama endorsed Spanberger at Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Virginia, praising her experience in law enforcement and the CIA. The former president endorsed Mr. Sherrill at Essex County College in Newark, New Jersey, saying Mr. Sherrill would be a “thinking governor” who would “unite people, not divide them.”
Mr. Spanberger is challenging Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears in the gubernatorial race. Current Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is nearing the end of his first four-year term leading the Commonwealth and is barred from running in this year’s election due to the state’s own law banning consecutive terms for governors.
Regardless of whether Spanberger or Earl Sears wins on Nov. 4, Virginia will elect its first female governor.
“The stakes are now clear,” President Obama said at a rally in Virginia. “You don’t have to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. You don’t have to ask yourself how crude and vile our culture can become. Elections matter, and elections matter to you.”
Who is Abigail Spanberger?
Spanberger, 46, served as the U.S. representative for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025, according to her bio on her campaign website. She also served as an operations officer at the CIA, collecting intelligence on nuclear proliferation and terrorism from 2006 to 2014, and in 2017, then-Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe appointed Spanberger to the Virginia Fair Housing Commission, USA TODAY previously reported.
Spanberger defeated incumbent Republican incumbent and Tea Party member Dave Blatt by just over 6,600 votes, becoming the first Democrat to represent the district since 1970, according to her biography on her campaign website.
Spanberger then won re-election in 2020, narrowly defeating Republican Representative Nick Freetas.
Who is Mikie Sherrill?
Sherrill, a former naval officer and federal prosecutor, represents a Congressional district near Newark, New Jersey, according to her biography on the U.S. House of Representatives website.
The 53-year-old congressman grew up in Reston, Virginia, graduated from high school and earned a bachelor’s degree from the Naval Academy, according to her bio on the House History, Arts and Archives website. She was a helicopter pilot in the Navy and used her experience in the campaign. In a video announcing her gubernatorial campaign, she wore a Navy flight jacket.
After 10 years in the Navy, she earned a law degree from Georgetown University, worked in litigation in New York City and became a federal prosecutor in New Jersey, according to her bio.
Sherrill defeated Jay Weber in 2018 to win the once-solidly Republican Congressional seat. She won a close 2020 re-election election, defeating Republican Rosemary Becchi, 53.3% to 46.7% of the vote.
Polls show voters likely to support Spanberger
According to a Suffolk University poll of likely voters released on October 23, Spanberger received 52% of the votes, followed by Earl Sears with 43%. A further 3% said they were “undecided”.
The poll was conducted between October 19th and 22nd among 500 voters across Virginia. Mr. Spanberger has led the race in every major poll in recent months, including an Emerson College poll conducted in September, where he was trailing by as much as 10 percentage points.
Virginia is being watched as a national beacon when it comes to gubernatorial elections, which take place just one year into a presidential term. Since 1977, with the exception of 2013, the commonwealth has elected governors from the opposite party of the sitting U.S. president, USA TODAY previously reported.
Sherrill has a slight lead in November voter forecast poll
According to an AtlasIntel poll released on November 1, Sherrill had a slight lead over Ciatarelli. Specifically, the poll, which recorded responses from more than 1,600 likely voters in New Jersey from October 25th to October 30th, gave Sherrill 50.2% of the vote and his opponent Jack Ciatarelli 49.3%, with a margin of error of 2%.
Ciatarelli, a former state legislator, lost the 2021 gubernatorial race to current Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by a narrower-than-expected margin of 51.2% to 48%. Murphy could not run again because New Jersey limits gubernatorial terms to two consecutive terms.
President Donald Trump, who supports Ciatarelli, has not directly participated in the campaign, but he endorsed the Republican candidate during a teleconference on October 24th.
In a recent debate, Ciattarelli gave Trump an “A” grade for his performance so far in his second term, while Sherrill gave the president an “F” grade.
Contributions: Aisha Bagchi, Kathryn Palmer, Jennifer Boresen, Carissa Wadick, Philip M. Bailey, Katie Sobko/USA TODAY
