Storm is expected to hit Jamaica

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Potentially devastating Hurricane Melissa is expected to hit Jamaica’s southern coast on the morning of October 28 with sustained winds of up to 175 mph, stronger gusts and a life-threatening storm surge, leaving a trail of destruction across the island before concentrating its fury in southeastern Cuba.

Between 15 and 30 inches of rain was possible, with up to 40 inches possible in isolated places and could cause deadly landslides in the island’s mountainous regions, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The intense development made Melissa the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2025, “surpassing Typhoon Lagatha in the western Pacific,” meteorologist Jeff Masters wrote in an article for Yale Climate Connections on October 27. As of October 27, at least seven deaths in the Caribbean region have been blamed on this dangerous hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center reported at 5 a.m. ET on October 28 that the center of Melissa was approximately 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 490 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. The hurricane began moving north-northeast, but its speed remained at about 5 miles per hour, with maximum wind speeds reaching about 175 miles per hour.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness and other officials urged Jamaicans to seek safe shelter and stay off the roads until the worst of the hurricane passes. Island residents were also encouraged to prepare for impacts unlike anything experienced in previous hurricanes.

“It’s becoming clearer by the hour that the impact of Hurricane Melissa is greater than the impact of Hurricane Beryl, certainly in terms of rainfall and flooding,” Holness said.

Melissa is expected to be the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the island. This is the highest category possible for the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Anemometer. Jamaica’s south coast is also expected to experience storm surges of up to 13 feet on top of large crashing waves, and Cuba’s southeast coast is expected to see storm surges of about the same height, the hurricane center said.

After days of torrential rain, tropical storm-force winds and rain in Melissa’s outer band began to batter Jamaica in the early hours of October 27th. The hurricane was predicted to make landfall near the Black River and begin gaining speed.

In an eyewall’s catastrophic winds, “the entire structure is likely to fail, especially in high-altitude areas where wind speeds on hill and mountain tops and on the windward side can be up to 30 percent stronger than surface winds,” the hurricane center warned. If the estimated sustained wind speed at the surface remains at 175 mph, wind speeds at higher elevations will be well over 200 mph.

The center said the storm could cause “massive infrastructure damage, prolonged power outages and communications disruptions” and isolate communities.

The hurricane center warned that there is little difference in destructive power between Category 4 (130 to 156 mph) winds and Category 5 (157 mph or more) winds, even though the most intense winds begin to weaken as the hurricane approaches land.

Melissa gained strength over the warm waters of the Caribbean between October 25 and 26, with wind speeds increasing by 105 miles per hour in 15 hours. Low pressure and strong winds put Melissa in a rare group of hurricanes, the most dangerous in the Atlantic Basin, researchers said.

Jamaican Minister of Health and Human Services Christopher Tufton announced on October 27 that at least three people had died in Jamaica as the country prepared for Hurricane Melissa.

Tufton said the deaths in Hanover, St. Catherine and St. Elizabeth parishes occurred while trees were being cut down. Two people were killed when the tree fell, including a medical worker who was airlifted to hospital but later succumbed to his injuries. The health minister said the third incident also involved someone who was electrocuted.

Another 13 people were injured, most of them falling from ladders or roofs as they tried to prepare for the storm, Tufton said.

At least four deaths were also reported in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by the evening of October 27, according to Reuters.

On Monday, October 27th, as Melissa’s pressure dropped and the winds picked up, it began to make history. This is the third Category 5 hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said in a post on X that the lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane.

When pressure plummeted to 901 millibars in the 2 a.m. update on Oct. 28, Melissa became the sixth lowest-pressure Atlantic hurricane since researchers began recording pressure continuously in 1979, according to Klotzbach’s data.

Klotzbach listed hurricanes in descending order of atmospheric pressure.

  • Wilma (2005): 882
  • Gilbert (1988): 888
  • Milton (2024): 895
  • Rita (2005): 895
  • Allen (1980): 899
  • Melissa (2025): 901
  • Katrina (2005): 902

According to historical records, only five other hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more have made landfall in Jamaica, Klotzbach said. Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall in 1988 with maximum winds of 130 mph, is the strongest storm on record to make direct landfall on the island.

Turbulence within the eye of a powerful hurricane forced a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconnaissance flight to depart from the eye of the storm early on Oct. 27, according to the hurricane center.

Forecasts of several feet of rain during Jamaica’s fall storms are rare, but not unheard of.

2010 – Hurricane Nicole matched this, but in a shorter amount of time, dumping 37.42 inches of rain in five days on Belair, Jamaica, the Hurricane Center reported. During the same period, much of the island received between 1 and 2 feet of rain. More than 13 people were killed and damage to the country’s infrastructure was reported to be around $235 million.

2001 – According to the Hurricane Center, during the last few days of October and the first few days of November 2001, slow-moving Hurricane Michelle caused widespread heavy rains across Central America and Jamaica. At Comfort Castle, Jamaica, the 10-day precipitation total reached 37.44 inches. Jamaica reported two deaths and Cuba reported five deaths.

1963 – Hurricane Flora reportedly dumped 60 inches of rain in Silver Hill, Jamaica, and 100.39 inches in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, according to a historical report by NOAA meteorologist David Ross.

1909 – Historical records, including monthly surveys by the National Weather Service, show 135 inches of rain was recorded in Silver Hill over an eight-day period from Nov. 4 to Nov. 11.

Contributed by: Reuters

Dinah Boyles Pulver, national correspondent for USA TODAY, has been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.

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