Latest Suffolk University poll finds Cuomo cuts Mamdani’s lead in New York mayoral race by half
New York mayoral candidates face off in heated mayoral debate
Independent Andrew Cuomo, Democrat Zoran Mamdani, and Republican Curtis Sliwa clashed during the first New York mayoral debate, exchanging fierce attacks.
- Andrew Cuomo has narrowed his lead over Zoran Mamdani in the New York mayoral race to 10 points, according to a new poll.
- With about a week to go until the election, Democratic Socialist Mamdani leads independent Cuomo 44% to 34%.
- Since September, Mr. Cuomo has gained significant support among Hispanic voters and independents.
- To win, Cuomo will likely need to attract voters who currently support Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has cut his double-digit lead over Democratic Party favorite Zoran Mamdani in half with one week left until the New York mayoral election, according to a new poll from Suffolk University.
The latest Suffolk state poll, released on October 27, shows that Mr. Cuomo, an independent candidate, had a lead of more than 20 points over Mr. Mamdani in the September poll, but now has a 10-point lead.
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist state lawmaker, leads Cuomo 44% to 34% in the period leading up to the Nov. 4 election, according to a poll of 500 voters conducted by phone from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26. Republican candidate and independent Curtis Sliwa remains in third place with 11%.
A September Suffolk poll showed Mamdani leading Cuomo by 20 points (45% to 25%), followed by Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 9% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams with 8%.
Adams has since withdrawn from the mayoral race and is now supporting Cuomo. As a result, a majority of Mr. Adams’ votes went to Mr. Cuomo, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Center for Political Research and who led the poll for New York City’s new mayor, told USA TODAY.
Although Mamdani currently holds a sizable lead, the poll adds some suspense to the widely watched race for mayor of America’s most populous city. Mr. Paleologos said Mr. Cuomo has some momentum, but to defeat Mr. Mamdani voters who support Mr. Sliwa will need to change their ways.
Paleologos said that when voters in Sliwa were asked about their second choice for mayor this month, they supported Mr. Cuomo over Mr. Mamdani by an overwhelming margin of 36% to 2%.
“Mr. Cuomo needs to appeal to Mr. Sliwa’s voters. There is such a big, strong Democratic (candidate), and the only thing that can save Mr. Cuomo at the 11th hour is the Republican voters of Mr. Sliwa. There’s an irony here,” Paleologos said. “They support Mr. Cuomo, and part of the reason is that they are anti-Mamdani and more conservative. They are likely Trump supporters, so they would support any potential Republican nominee.”
“But Mr. Cuomo has to make that case,” Paleologos said. “He’s still the underdog and everything has to go well for him. But he’s starting to show a comeback.”
Spokesman Andrew Cuomo said on October 27 that polls show “the momentum is on our side.” Mamdani’s campaign did not immediately respond to a message from USA TODAY seeking comment on the poll.
A Suffolk poll shows Cuomo has strong support among Hispanic and independent voters.
Mr. Paleologos said Mr. Cuomo’s most dramatic jump was with Hispanic voters, who trailed Mr. Mamdani by 30 points in September, but now have a 1-point lead in polls in Suffolk.
Paleologos said he doesn’t know specifically why Cuomo is doing well among Hispanics. Pollsters said they don’t know if Mr. Cuomo is appealing directly to them “if it’s cultural” or what they prefer in controversial debates.
“But clearly there has been a shift. As we saw during the 2024 presidential election, some Hispanic voters are also more conservative,” Paleologos said. “Perhaps they are leaning toward more moderate candidates with more experience in government.”
Cuomo’s campaign believes momentum is on its side.
Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi said the new Suffolk poll is similar to polls conducted by the Cuomo campaign over the past month.
“Today’s Suffolk University poll shows exactly what we’re seeing on the ground: This is a two-man race, and momentum is on our side,” Azzopardi said in an emailed statement to USA TODAY. “And the more New Yorkers learn about how dangerously immature Zoran Mamdani is and his extremist agenda, the less they like what they see.”
Azzopardi said he believes early voting turnout will also help Cuomo.
“And it’s clear that Andrew Cuomo’s message of competent leadership and his policies to improve public safety, end the housing and affordability crisis, and strengthen our economy and education system are resonating,” Azzopardi said. “Andrew Cuomo will not stop fighting for every vote, in every corner of this great city, from now until Election Day. Together, we can and will win the fight to save our city.”
Pollster said Mamdani still within range of victory
Although Mr. Cuomo cut Mr. Mamdani’s lead in half, according to the Oct. 27 Suffolk poll, Mr. Paleologos said Mr. Mamdani is still in a position to become New York’s next mayor. The good news for Mr. Mamdani is that, despite Mr. Cuomo’s gains in the new poll, there may not be enough undecided voters to support Mr. Cuomo’s approach.
Paleologos noted that the polls began on the same day that House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries endorsed Mamdani for mayor.
“Mamdani’s approval ratings haven’t actually gone down. What it shows is that he just hasn’t gotten as strong as Cuomo,” Paleologos said. “The good news for Mamdani is that he is very close to the numbers needed to win.
“He probably needs 46 to 47 percent of the vote to win,” Paleologos added. “He’s right there.”
