US LBM Coaches Poll: 5 teams on track for College Football Playoff
USA TODAY Sports’ Paul Myerberg breaks down the latest U.S. LBM Coaches Poll and reveals the five Power 4 teams likely headed to the CFP.
It’s been a week since the first College Football Playoff poll exposed the absurdities of preseason voting.
And more importantly, the potential impact on CFP.
This offseason, the CFP selection committee was tasked with focusing more on good wins and good losses than just wins, and this will be their first test.
Ohio State topped the U.S. LBM Coaches Poll and the Associated Press poll, two polls that were used to rank teams until the first CFP poll. And it has nothing to do with a good win.
The three teams that have a legitimate reason for being No. 1 in the rankings (Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M) all have one win over currently ranked teams and have played the rest of their schedules relatively east.
But all three wins against ranked teams aren’t the same.
Indiana continued to play and physically overwhelmed Oregon, while Texas A&M rode into South Bend and won in the final minute. Meanwhile, Ohio State won a big home game against a Texas team that struggles to move the ball offensively against power conference schools other than Mississippi State.
Ohio State and Indiana have a common enemy in Illinois. The Hoosiers won by 53 points in Bloomington, Indiana, and the Buckeyes won by 18 points on the road.
And Texas A&M is a hot team with a big win at the moment (at LSU). However, a week before the first CFP vote, Ohio State (vs. Penn State) and Indiana State (Maryland) can issue statements that could influence the selection committee.
Alternatively, the committee could take a punt and select the No. 1 team through a vote of coaches and media. Since the first CFP in 2014, the committee has almost always done this on the first vote.
Let’s take a look at this week’s CFP forecast.
1. Indiana: Three of the final four games are on the road against Bloomington, so if anyone wants to upset the Hoosiers, this month is the time to do it. Next up is Maryland.
2.Ohio: This team has not been threatened by any signs of offense all season. And it won’t be until the Big Ten championship game. Next up is Pennsylvania.
3. Texas A&M: To be honest, the schedule isn’t what it originally looked like (avoiding Georgia and Alabama). The Aggies will move to 12-0. Next: Goodbye.
4. Alabama: It’s been a year since so much ugliness hit the streets of the SEC, but the ugliness is still there. But now it comes with victory. Next: Goodbye.
5. Georgia: The Dawgs will be measured against a recent championship Georgia team. That’s an unfavorable proposition in every conceivable way. Next: Florida (Jacksonville, Florida)
6. Ole Miss: Big win at Oklahoma State. The Rebels should win and finish at 11-1, but they may still miss the SEC Championship Game. Next up is South Carolina.
7.Oregon: Considered a lock for the CFP, the Ducks still have a lot of heavy lifting left in them. Next: Goodbye.
8. Miami: The biggest question in Coral Gables is: Can the Canes stay motivated against their ACC opponents in the final month of the season? Next is SMU.
9. Vanderbilt: It’s all new territory for this program. Every week is the next step into the unknown, but the Commodores continue to rack up wins. Next up is Texas.
10. Georgia Tech: QB Haynes King is getting stronger as November begins, and a dangerous trap game awaits him with a team (and coach) desperate for victory. Next up is North Carolina State University.
11. Texas Tech University: This is the biggest two-game series of the season for the Red Raiders. Can a stout defense find an answer to the rapid rise of K-State QB Avery Johnson (12 TDs in the last four games)? Next up is Kansas.
12. South Florida: He led by two touchdowns against Memphis. They’ll get one more chance to win there (and possibly earn a CFP spot) in the AAC Championship Game. Next: Goodbye.
protruding bracket
First round bye
Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama.
1st round match
(12) South Florida at (5) Georgia
(11) Texas Tech at Ole Miss (6)
(10) Georgia Tech, Oregon (7)
(9) Vanderbilt at Miami (8)
When will the first CFP ranking predictions be released?
Broadcast on Tuesday, November 4th from 8:00pm to 8:45pm ET on ESPN
Matt Hayes is a senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X @MattHayesCFB.
