AccuWeather chief hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that hurricane conditions could continue for three consecutive days in some locations.
Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to develop into a hurricane
AccuWeather Chief Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva shared the latest information about Tropical Storm Melissa and whether it could impact the United States.
As of Friday afternoon, October 24, Tropical Storm Melissa continues to circle the central Caribbean, with the island nation of Jamaica located almost directly in the path of the fast-growing hurricane.
Hispaniola and Cuba are also under fire, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said on October 23 that Jamaica could face the worst of the storm’s ferocity in the short term.
“Due to Melissa’s slow movement, Jamaica continues to face an increased risk of potentially damaging winds for several days, heavy rains that could cause life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding,” the hurricane center said.
“High winds and heavy rains are likely to begin in Jamaica by Friday (October 24) or Saturday (October 25), prompting urgent preparations to protect life and property,” the hurricane center warned.
Models sound the alarm over Jamaica’s forecast
Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Institute, told X on Oct. 23 that “we’re becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of an approach or direct hit from Melissa towards Jamaica. Overnight hurricane models are trending towards it, and everything points to an impact on the island.”
In fact, according to the Hurricane Center, “various model solutions point to Melissa south of Jamaica, over Jamaica, or north of Jamaica.”
Heavy rain is expected across Jamaica, and “precipitation totals from multiple models suggest there is a good chance the storm totals will exceed 24 inches, with localized amounts exceeding 30 inches,” meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters wrote in their blog Eye on the Storm.
3-day hurricane conditions could cause ‘slow-motion disaster’
The storm will gain strength and move slowly over the northern Caribbean Sea over the next few days. “Melissa is expected to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane as it slowly swirls over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. The storm is expected to move very slowly, potentially keeping some areas of Jamaica under hurricane conditions for more than 72 hours,” warned Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.
“Melissa is developing into a slow-motion disaster. Millions of people are at risk of devastating effects. We are increasingly concerned about the threat of an unfolding humanitarian disaster.”
Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane
Some forecast models indicate that Melissa will strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane in the coming days, but the Hurricane Center’s official forecast says it will only reach Category 4 strength at 150 mph.
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said in his Substack the Eyewall that Melissa will likely move slowly over the warmest, deepest waters of the Atlantic Basin.
Hurricanes gain power when they move over warm, deep water that is at least 80 degrees.
“The very warm ocean, which reaches depths of several hundred feet, acts like jet fuel and provides additional energy for Melissa,” DaSilva said. “The warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin are in the central Caribbean and are in the direct path of this storm. It is not inconceivable that it could rapidly strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane this weekend.”
A Category 5 hurricane has sustained wind speeds of at least 157 miles per hour.
How often do hurricanes hit Jamaica?
According to the Jamaican government, based on historical data, hurricanes strike Jamaica on average approximately once every 10 to 11 years. A hurricane approaches (without a direct hit) about every four years.
Over the years, many hurricanes have approached Jamaica, including Category 4 Hurricane Ivan (2004), Category 4 Hurricane Dean (2007), and the direct hit of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
The most powerful hurricane on record was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which made landfall as a high-end Category 3.
Contributors: Julia Gomez and Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY
