Not the first time, the European capital is worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin will surgically divide the Transatlantic Alliance and get everything it wants in Ukraine.
Prior to the sudden Alaska summit between Putin and US President Donald Trump, European diplomats told CNN they refused to be named because they were not allowed to speak on records. “We risk being a footnote in history.”
Partly, the fear of Europe depends on little known about what the Kremlin proposed to stop fighting in Ukraine. Putin has not given details. US envoy Steve Witkov said nothing after meeting with Russian leaders last Wednesday.
Trump himself said, “It’s very complicated. We’re going to get some back, we’re going to get some switching. There’s a territorial exchange to improve both.”
Europeans fear that “improvement of both” is a very unlikely result. There are zero indications that Putin has changed an inch to his biggest demand. From a territorial or Ukrainian perspective, leaving Russian punching bags without security guarantees, in that there are limitations on the size and capabilities of the military.
“There’s no point in Paris, Berlin or London that anyone else’s territory has problems with this US regime. (Europeans) feel it’s deeply intrusive,” the diplomat said.
The UK, France, Germany, Italy and the EU “we are working on the principle that international borders should not be forced to change,” Poland and Finland also signed the statement in a joint statement on Saturday.
They were trying to insist on most of the day to Vice President JD Vance, who was about to begin his vacation in the UK, and to clarify what was negotiated.
“The Trump administration reported that Russia reported that it had reported a ceasefire request for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways,” according to the WAR Institute (ISW), a think tank, a Washington, DC-based scene tank.
There is one thread that is common to all versions. Putin is to demand that they withdraw from all parts of the Donetsk region, which the Ukrainian forces still hold. This includes quite a few cities in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka.
“Recognizing this demand will lead Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line of Donetsk agriculture since 2014,” ISW pointed out, putting Ukraine even more aggressive.
Mick Ryan, who tracks the Ukrainian conflict on his Futura Doctrina blog, said on Sunday that “Ukraine more than anyone else understands that it will be used as a launch pad for future Russian invasions.”
The parallels between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler in 1938 are impressive. He said that even after the Nazis invaded Czechoslovakia, Czechoslovakia was guaranteed to Hitler. “This is the last territorial claim I have to make in Europe.”
Unknown: whether Putin will stick to the demand that Russia has been given control over the other two Ukrainian regions (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia). Or whether to accept the freeze along the current frontlines of these regions.
It is also unclear whether Putin will require Ukraine to recognize Moscow’s sovereignty over Crimea. If so, he might offer it in return. Zelensky has already pointed out that the Ukrainian constitution prevents its territory from being abandoned.
There are also questions about the series of events. Europeans see ceasefire as a prerequisite for territorial talk. “Current contacts should be the starting point for negotiations,” the European leader said on Saturday.
Another unknown: whether the Kremlin agrees with the kind of European “power of security” that guarantees a ceasefire. All signs so far are that NATO members will not allow them to contribute to such power.
“There must be robust and reliable security guarantees that will enable Ukraine to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” European leaders said in a statement on Saturday.
However, the experience suggests that Europeans may be whining in the wind for all their efforts to flatten and soften Trump.
“Since taking office in January, Europeans have purchased unlimited passes to ride Trump’s roller coaster. They climbed, tied themselves down, screamed in fear, but were unable to get down.”
As French President Emmanuel Macron has been urging it for eight years, they are paying the price to not develop a strategic identity that is not dependent on US apron strings.
As much as they want to support and protect Ukraine, Europeans will become pleading and speculate on what will be determined in their absence.
“The deal between the US and Russia must include Ukraine and the EU. That’s the issue of Ukraine and the European security,” EU foreign policy director Kaja Kallas said on Sunday.
For Ryan, a former Australian general who is currently tracking the conflict, Europe’s plight is far more dangerous than it should have been. Because the United States itself does not have a Ukrainian strategy.
“There’s anger, impulses, social media posts, multiple course changes in direction, and the underlying desire from Trump to win the Nobel Peace Prize.”
