Panera Pan Planned Major Layoff in the end of fresh dough production
Panera Pan is planning to lay off hundreds of employees to phase out production of fresh doughs across the United States.
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The unfortunate July work report threw a bucket of cold water at the economic outlook that appears to be enduring surprisingly well despite President Donald Trump’s high import duties, immigration crackdowns and widespread federal layoffs.
Not only did the employer add a disappointing 73,000 jobs, but it was well below the expected 105,000, but the salary increase in May and June was revised downward at a whopping 258,000. That added 19,000 in May, and 14,000 in June. This is the weakest performance since the country rose from the Covid-19 recession in December 2020.
Until late August 1st, Trump announced that he had ordered the firing of U.S. Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Mantelfer. The president of the social media post accused Mentarfer of manipulating numbers for “political purposes,” but he did not provide evidence.
Early in the afternoon, the Dow Jones industrial average fell by about 607 points, with the benchmark S&P 500 index being 1.5% off
Over the past three months, the economy has on average earned just 35,000 job benefits.
Here are some takeaways:
This was not a blip
Economists say the poor don’t think they were probably outliers, but they said healthy jobs will resume in the coming months. Consumers are curbing some spending and pulling back travel and recreational activities amid concerns about Trump’s tariffs pushing prices. As more import fees collide with store shelves, Americans will likely lower their spending even further, Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note to clients.
It should lead to weaker jobs benefits, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, trucking and warehouse, the research firm said.
And on July 31, Trump escalated his global trade battle with a massive round of import taxation.
Meanwhile, executive confidence in the business outlook has been shaken in recent months by tariffs that are narrowing down profitability, which is expected to spell a more pronounced decline in business investment, the Pantheon said.
“Sadly, it appears that employment is set for a summer slowdown as companies facing new cost volatility due to escalating trade tensions focus on managing labor costs through reduced employment, performance-based layoffs, reduced wage growth, and entry-level wage declines.”
And the decline in federal employment will also attract more momentum in the coming months after the Supreme Court recently lifted its stay in the mass federal layoffs,” the Pantheon said.
The Labor Bureau tracked 84,000 federal job losses this year, but the number of acquisitions and job cuts announced was far greater.
Work sector figures show employment across the economy reached its lowest level in 12 months in June.
Will there be a recession in 2025?
After waning over the past few months as Trump delayed many tariffs and reached deals with several countries, the horrifying words have returned to conversation.
“For me, today’s work reporting is going into a recession,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the left-leaning Institute for Economic Policy, in a statement. “Certainly, can we lift up? But if we look back and date an official recession that begins three or six months from now, this is what it looks like today.
The recession appears to be “very, very likely” unless Trump lowers tariffs by Labor Day, according to Moody’s analysis chief economist Mark Zandy.
Can slipping through the economy and stock markets lead Trump to the reverse course?
Zandi said the economic outlook and tumbling stock markets are shaking, which could encourage Trump to try to soften import fees. “He’s going to try to pull it back,” he said.
But if he doesn’t act before Labor Day, it would “it’ll be too late,” Zandi said, saying the job will ripple too dramatically, rippling as retail prices and consumer and business sentiment are revoked.
There is a possibility of a Fed rate reduction in September
Following the Fed’s decision to maintain stable interest rates for the Fed’s fifth meeting, at a press conference on July 30, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the labor market as solid and balanced. He also said the authorities will focus primarily on unemployment as they decide whether to cut interest rates in September.
The unemployment rate was up to 4.2% in July. That’s still low as Trump’s immigration constraints, particularly deportation, have reduced the workforce, and despite declining demand for employees.
In other words, job seekers are contracted at the same time, ensuring that the unemployment rate is almost stable.
But Morgan Stanley suggested that the acquisition of weak jobs over the past three months would spur the Fed to act in September despite stable unemployment.
“The slower pay pace increases negative side risk and reduces September to the table,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
Fed Fund Futures Markets is now at 85% chance that the September rate has risen by 85% from 45% after Powell’s July 30th statement.
AI is beginning to crimulate the profits of work
Professional and business services took over 14,000 jobs in July, and salary increases in the vast white-collar sector have been stagnating for more than two years. The July show included unemployment in computer and technical roles. Staff executives say businesses are replacing many entry-level information technology workers with artificial intelligence.
“It’s happening,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said of CNBC after the release of his employment report in July. “This is not the main driving force of the labour market…but we see early signs.”
(This story has been updated to add new information)
