Eastern Ukraine
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US President Donald Trump said he will now deliver the 50-day deadline that Russia’s Vladimir Putin gave to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine in a few weeks, “10 or 12 days.” But, as Trump says, if his Russian counterpart is already determined not to create peace, does a short deadline make a total difference?
probably. Ukraine has faced the most challenging moments on the frontline since the start of the war. By September 3rd, when the original 50-day mark has passed – much of Moscow, perhaps, could come true.
Given the pace and strategic nature of the progress Moscow has made over the past two weeks, it could potentially be closer to surround the eastern hub of Pokrovsk and Kostiantinibka in the north and the eastern hub of Kupiansk in the next few weeks.
It will significantly change the frontline dynamics and bring Putin’s goal to keep the Donetsk region within reach. It will also make the defense of the land between Ukraine and Kiev a much bigger challenge for the coming winters. Ukraine would have lost control of most of the towns that now rely on to keep the East, and would have struggled to maintain the grip of Kramatalk and Slobiansk.
Trump’s words were welcomed in Kiev. There, Andri Yamak, Chief of Staff of Ukrainian President Voldimi Zelensky, said that he “establishes power and provides a clear message of peace through strength.”
“The (US President) has already said he is shortening the timeline he gave to Putin because he believes he is revealing the answer. Putin respects only power.
What’s important is what will come in 10-12 days. Another air threat or a change in Trump deadline will unfold to the tacos (Trump Trump always drives out chickens) until it reaches the sensitivity of his administration, making it a gift for those who suspect Trump is really happy to play hardball with the Kremlin.
However, imposing secondary sanctions or tariffs that Trump threatened would have a major global impact. These include punishing India and China for Russian oil and gas purchases.
India is a US ally and heavily dependent on Russian energy, allowing it to be purchased through a variety of complex mechanisms to prevent demand for other energy markets, raises oil prices and damages the US economy. China is a Russian ally and also relies on Russian energy, wandering towards a complex, sometimes trade war with the sometimes symbiotic and economic America.
If Trump sanctions, it would damage the US and the global energy market, meaning his actions are likely to be more prominent and aggressive than any of his predecessor, President Joe Biden.
China’s pressure could affect Moscow’s actions, but Beijing also told European diplomats who can’t afford to lose, as the US pays all attention to China. China can bank to a weakened Trump rather than re-jig its entire geopolitical approach.
So there are two weeks when Moscow has to persuade its allies and customers to quickly buy the energy they need so badly. Ukraine must try to hold its position as much as it can in the face of a fierce and successful Russian attack. And the Trump administration must decide whether the threat means anything.
And if they don’t want to endure imposition and vast economic earthquakes, they must find a compelling off-ramp so that their deadlines and threats will continue to carry some weight.
