CNN
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The response to the Trump administration’s decision to suspend the shipment of arms to Ukraine could not explain the conflict any further.
The Pentagon said Wednesday it has suspended aid as it needs to check whether the support provided to Ukraine is in line with US President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.
However, the move could have fatal consequences for Ukraine. This is because cargo stops include missiles from the Patriots, the US air defense system that protects millions of Ukrainian civilians from Russia’s increasingly large daily air attacks.
According to the country’s Air Force, Kiev endured with 13 hours of terrifying time explosions and trouser overhead with 13 hours of terrifying time explosions and thrust overhead.
When smoke began to clear up in the cities, Ukrainian President Volodymia Zelensky praised the military for shooting down and stuffing most of Russian drones and missiles.
“It is very important that our partners continue to support us in their advocacy from ballistic missiles. Patriots and missiles are the true guardians of life,” he said.
Zelensky had the opportunity to insist directly on Trump when the two spoke on the phone on Friday. Reading the phone from Zelensky’s office said the two leaders “agree to work together to enhance protection of the sky.”
“We are ready for a direct project with the US, and we believe this is extremely important for security, especially when it comes to drones and related technologies,” Readout said.
Other air defense systems cannot match their effectiveness with patriots, but their power is at enormous cost, their production is limited, and they are growing rapidly in the Middle East, Southwest Asia and South Korea, especially in areas where the Trump administration is deemed more strategically important.
The US announcement sent shockwaves through Ukraine, with presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak saying it would be “very strange” and “inhuman” to halt the supply of missiles used to protect civilians.
However, despite the panicked response, the movement was not at all unexpected. Trump has threatened to withdraw Ukrainian support to force Kiev to force a table of negotiations, and he has previously suspended shipping of aid.
The United States has long been Ukraine’s biggest supporter, covering around 40% of Ukraine’s military needs on its own, but has not announced new aid to Ukraine since early January, when Trump returned to power.
Meanwhile, European countries have strengthened their support from Ukraine.
Europe is now surpassing the US as the largest donor, according to the German Kiel Institute, which monitors aid to Ukraine. Since the initiation of the full-scale invasion until the end of April, it has supported Ukraine in total aid of 72 billion euros ($85 billion) and exceeded 75 billion euros ($7.6666 billion) from the US.
However, the numbers don’t convey the whole story.
“Ukraine has many different needs, some of which can be met by other suppliers, but some can only be met in the US,” Daniel Byman, director of the War, Irregular Threat and Terrorism Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN.
“Only the US can offer this, especially with ballistic missiles. Those cutoffs leave a huge gap between Ukraine and air defense. And given the scary daily Russian attacks, it’s very consequential.”
Russia has stepped up its air attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks.
Ballistic missiles pose the most deadly threat, and Russia fired 80 of these people in June alone, according to Ukrainian officials.
Ukraine was able to shoot down some of them with the Patriot system, but what slipped out caused unimaginable suffering. Last week, one ballistic missile strike killed 21 people in Dnipro. A week earlier, 21 people were killed when a ballistic missile struck an apartment in Kiev.
Such fatal attacks become more frequent when Ukraine loses access to patriots, widely considered to be one of the best air defense systems available.
They can defeat cruises and high-sonic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and aircraft. According to analysts, the Ukrainian military is using them in a very effective way, shooting down missiles such as Kinzhar ballistic missiles that Moscow claims were impossible to intercept.
Each system has an estimated cost of around $1.1 billion, and the Patriots are the most expensive equipment sent to Ukraine by their allies. According to CSIS, the Patriot missile rounds are around $4 million each, which is a very high price tag.
However, if Ukraine had the cash to buy these systems, it would not be so you’d find it difficult to raise them.
“The production pace of Patriot missiles is low. It’s not because the US doesn’t want to produce any more, but because it’s so sophisticated, you can’t produce thousands of them a year. You can have allies all over the world that need them.”
Lockheed Martin, who makes US military patriot missiles, has increased production to record levels, but by 2027, it can still exceed 500 a year with plans to increase production to 650 a year.
The $5.5 billion massive deal between US and German companies has approved the first non-US Patriot missile production following a NATO order of up to 1,000 rounds, but initial delivery is not expected until years.
A German government spokesman said at a press conference on Friday that although he had previously donated some of its Patriot systems to Ukraine, he was considering the option to purchase Ukrainian missiles from the United States.
Cedarskaushall, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based defense think tank, said the global stockpile of Patriot missiles is not “very low,” but there is evidence of concern about the shortage.
“The requirements for patriots, especially in the Indo-Pacific, have been significantly increasing,” he said.
He said that considering that some of the missiles aimed at Ukraine were initially diverted to other allies, including Israel, it is likely that the US wanted to deliver interceptors to countries within the scope of Iranian missiles, or wanted contractual obligations.
Still, Kaushal said it is very unlikely that the US itself will face any kind of emergency missile shortage.
“The US has sent a considerable number of Patriot Interceptors to Ukraine, but restocked stocks through a buyback scheme from Japan, and recent freight has been diverted from export customers rather than from US stock,” he said in a memo sent by email to CNN.
Zelensky previously said Ukraine needs around 25 patriot batteries to effectively defend its airspace. The exact numbers and locations are secretly protected, but at this point it is roughly half a dozen.
But what is known is that Ukrainians are very concerned about running out of munitions. Particularly, the latest US suspension is not about future aid, but is being approved, funded and affecting delivery on the way to Ukraine.
“One of the things that future sales are not approved is to stop what is already in the pipeline. So it is harmful to Ukraine’s future defense and its effectiveness will be very quick. Russian attacks happen every day, and Ukraine relies on these systems and relies on counters.
A shipment suspension could give Russia yet another boost.
“It’s part of (the Russians) strategy. They believe that without US support, Ukraine is likely to collapse or at least make concessions. So we’ll certainly increase the incentives for Russia to maintain military pressure on Ukraine,” Byman said.
The WAR Institute (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said previous delays in the salvation of aid to Ukraine are constantly accelerating Russia’s interests on the battlefield.
Russia advanced in Avdivka in eastern Ukraine when the US limped into military aid in late 2023 and early 2024. When the US suspended sharing intelligence news with Ukraine in March, Russian forces advanced in Kursk.
“The halt of US aid to Ukraine will strengthen the theory of victory of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which assumes that Russia can win the war of attrition by making slow, creeping progress and surpassing Western support for Ukraine,” ISW said.
A shipment suspension could reinforce Putin’s belief that time is on the side of Russia. And if he could delay negotiations for long enough, his army would ultimately last longer Western aid to Ukraine.
For many sacrifices Ukrainians trying to protect their country from bigger and stronger invaders, the lack of US military aid isn’t the only thing – it’s potentially a disaster.
