CNN
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Despite Israel’s surprising early success with unprecedented Iran, the weekend’s intense bombardment and retaliation weekend has raised questions about Israel’s exit strategy.
Israeli war planes essentially do not oppose Iran’s military and nuclear sites, but dozens of Israelis have been killed and wounded in retaliatory Iranian attacks.
Meanwhile, the US is helping Israel defend against Iran’s missile strikes, but for now it has refused to take part in Iran’s attacks and forced Israel to reassess what military operations can be achieved.
“The end is diplomatic, not military,” an Israeli source told CNN. Israel’s hopes are that future military actions will “dampen Iran’s negotiations” in future nuclear negotiations.
This same theory of Israeli military action pressures the enemy to make concessions failed to force a cave in Hamas, Gaza. Yet, mere mention of the consequences of Iran that can negotiate suggests a changing view.
Since the start of last week’s unprecedented strike in Iran, Israel has made its purpose completely clear.
The intent was to permanently remove the “existent” nuclear and ballistic missile threats of the Islamic Republic, one of the Israeli military officials spelled in CNN.
And to achieve that military target, the officials will not set the time limits they argued.
But its ambitions that are constantly dependent on Israeli military-following America now oppose our reality, reluctant to be drawn into yet another Middle East war.
Sources familiar with the issue have told CNN that Israel is talking to the US about increasing its level of involvement.
But President Donald Trump, at least publicly, is reluctant to plunge the United States into another Middle East war, continuing to distance himself from violence.
One US official told CNN that Trump rejected Israel’s plan to kill Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming that the US president is far from entering the conflict and that he is determined to mediate it.
“Iran and Israel should trade, just like I had them make India and Pakistan,” Trump posted on his Truth Social Platform on Sunday, referring to his intervention last month in a brief conflict between two South Asian nuclear neighbours over Kashmir’s conflict territory.
However, unlike both India and Pakistan, Israel needs American firepower, not diplomatic intervention.
Despite Israel’s success in killing leading nuclear scientists, the rich enrichment facility remains beyond its capabilities to cause lasting damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
Some of the most important sites are buried underground, such as the Fordaurinciment facility in northern Iran, built in the mountains.
Without US military involvement such as logistics support and bunkerbusting firepower, Iran’s capabilities could survive even the long-term Israeli throbbing.
Israel’s strategy also has another flaw.
Even if all the facilities were destroyed, they could ultimately be rebuilt by a regime with institutional nuclear know-how. Furthermore, if the Iranian regime survives the current onslaught, we may naturally calculate that nuclear deterrent rather than new nuclear deals is the best defense against future attacks.
With this in mind, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly called on Iranian citizens to “act, stand up” and take over their government.
But intensive bombing campaigns there are ways to bring people together even the least popular regimes. An interview conducted by CNN within Iran suggests that even long-strained Iranians are even more incensed with Israel than their own unpopular leaders.
Of course, it doesn’t take a week from an escalating conflict, but many things can change.
Iranians could rise up. Nuclear negotiations could resume. President Trump has even managed to change his mind.
But not the first time, Israel is caught up in conflict without a clear exit strategy.
The ongoing war in Gaza, launched in 2023 after the attack on October 7th, was aimed at destroying Hamas and ensuring the release of all hostages held, but there is no clear plan for what is still going on.
Now, Israel is facing yet another crushing, a dangerous war of attrition, with no time limit or a clear end.