Kiev, Ukraine
CNN
–
“The root cause of conflict.”
These were amazing words from a man who is said to be on the path to peace.
But that means that Russian President Putin will become the core of what must be resolved for peace in two weeks or three months, increasing pressure to an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire, depending on how you count. Following this most consequential call at the Sochi coastal music school, the Kremlin’s head has returned to its start.
Five other different words appeared hours ago, but they may have echoed in Putin’s ears while talking to President Donald Trump for two hours.
“It’s not our war,” Vice President J.D. Vice President Vance previously said. Once again, Vance has embraced this astonishing non-threat threat, with his role as a precursor to very bad news on European security. Unless the United States takes steps, perhaps from both diplomacy and aid to Ukraine, towards a peace deal that Russia is unfailingly hoping for – Washington’s setback is exactly what Russia longs for, and it seems Putin has absolutely nothing to do to achieve the consequences of this dream, and Barr continues his brutal war.
At the moment of the call, Trump already sounded like a man returning from the fight. Five days ago he was a passionate intermediary and a peace director willing to bridge the hostility of Putin and Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting in Turkey. However, after a Monday call with Putin, he simply said that Ukraine and Russia must speak directly “as much as possible.” He even conveyed the work to the new American Pope’s house in the Vatican as a possible venue. The US may not be completely out of the process, but it speaks as if it hopes to lead it to someone else.
The last 10 days have been a vivid reminder that President Putin doesn’t actually need Potus or his approval. And the logic is simple.
Russian state media has been the best part of the three years of war and has lectured audiences. They are not only inconsistent with Ukraine, but also in conflict with all NATO, including the US. Trump’s presidency has created a small window that will either speak to the Kremlin towards a better position or reduce the pain of Western sanctions. But it does not change the Kremlin’s central calculations and messages. This is an existential war about reestablishing their international excellence. Through the casualties of war, so much pain and loss has been given to the Russian people, which by providing a midling to poor outcomes, could significantly limit the lifespan of Russian leaders. This is not a war they see as losing.
The limits of what the US can offer Russia at this time are what it sees from space in terms of leverage. Yes, the US could expand its sanctions, as Trump pondered last week, adding “secondary sanctions” against Russian investors, as well as Indian and Chinese oil buyers. But it will cause another trade-like rift with the power of the world that Washington just made good. The US was able to ease sanctions to make concessions to Russia instead. However, those children’s gloves can plague European allies and decline without European practical support.
A further step to causing Moscow’s pain would mean that Trump went even further to punish Russia over his predecessor, Joe Biden. That’s not a Magazine geopolitical game plan. It will deepen its involvement in a war that is not ending in purpose until one side is upset or seen a dramatic change in political leadership.
Ukraine is bleak in 2025. However, the central tenet of European policy was the best choice in a world of horrifying choices. Moscow could only be forced to reduce its targets if it had seen an infinitely unified NATO before that. Its economy, wealth, wealth, talent, or hardware may be loose. War machines only need one thing for stud sounds. It’s dark, but there are few options in Europe. Ukraine has no choice at all.
Trump felt he had a choice. His business insight believes there is no benefit to long-term investment in conflict with enemies you want to get along with. There are no transactions here. Putin doesn’t buy anything. He wants to conquer and take. Trump has nothing to sell. It bans US support for traditional allies. Putin and Trump have no way of winning and maintaining their height.
For decades, American leadership has been built around things other than good, small deals. Allies, vast soft power, mercy over military hegemony makes it the largest economy on the planet, an unbeaten currency, and a great deal in itself, very good.
However, Trump believes America’s role is small. This may be the moment when Trump finally understood Putin as someone who didn’t seek his approval or loyalty and intervened. If so, the US also summoned decades of shots, acknowledging its focus and limits of power, leaving Hale Mary Pass in the Vatican, the most important peace deal since the 1940s.
