Jerusalem
CNN
–
Our first destination was Riyadh.
Just a few months after his new administration, the President of the United States met the King of Saudi Arabia as part of an effort to promote relations with the Arab world.
From there, it headed to another regional capital, where the leader of the Free World gave a speech about a new vision for the Middle East.
A stop in Israel that was prominently missing from the itinerary.
The year was 2009, and the president was Barack Obama. His decision not to visit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had just taken office, was considered an insult. It marked the beginning of what many to this day see Obama’s Israel as a relationship with, especially the nation’s longest-serving leader.
However, as President Donald Trump prepares for his first visit to the region for his second term, the same elephant sits in the same corner of his oval office. Trump’s itinerary includes Saudi Arabia. In Saudi Arabia, locals arrive early on Tuesday. It includes Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The White House called it a “historic return to the Middle East,” and promised a “common vision of stability, opportunity and mutual respect.” Israel is not on its itinerary again. And Israeli officials are concerned that another surprise could come after Trump has already blinded Israel several times, after announcing talks with Iran, a contract with Yemeni Hooti rebels and direct talks with Hamas.
Sources familiar with the issue said Israeli officials tried to ask about possible halts in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv during Trump’s trip. But the president overshadowed those flickerings of hope last week when he said there was no plan to stop in Israel.
“We’re going to do that at some point,” Trump said. “But this is not the trip.”
Trump may have been persuaded to add a visit to his itinerary if he could claim some sort of victory, whether it was a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, a humanitarian aid plan, or something else. However, there is no such artifact as Israel is ready to expand the war in Gaza. Even if hostages Edan Alexander was imminent on Monday, the outlook for a comprehensive ceasefire still seems far away.
“Without the outcome, he wouldn’t have come (to Israel),” the source said.
Netanyahu was proud to be the first world leader to visit Trump in the second term in February. On his second visit in April, he became the first leader to begin negotiations for a new trade deal after Trump announced cleaning fees for imports. The Prime Minister left the White House without a trade deal and new concerns. Trump’s shocking announcement that the US will begin negotiations for a new nuclear deal with Iran.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he currently has almost leverage in Washington, said former Israeli diplomat Aaron Pincus.
“In contrast to Saudi Arabic, Catalis, or Emiratis (or Emiratis) there’s nothing Netanyahu has to have, what Trump wants, what needs, or what he can give him,” Pinkus told CNN. The wealthy Arab countries have pledged trillions of dollars in US investment and may announce the purchase of key weapons that Trump can promote as a victory for American manufacturing.
Despite being perhaps Trump’s most vocal international supporter, Netanyahu has few cards left to play, Pincus said. Under the Democratic administration, Netanyahu used Republican supporters to put pressure on the White House. However, Netanyahu has never publicly criticized Trump and he rarely starts.
“He has nothing right now,” Pinas said.
As Trump visits the area, concerns about what Israeli officials are bringing has grown.
In the weeks leading up to his trip, Trump made a series of moves that made the Israeli Prime Minister nothing more than a frustrating bystander. Trump has pursued negotiations with Iran over a nuclear program that does not rule out the possibility that Tehran will maintain some civilian nuclear capabilities. He agreed to a ceasefire with the Housis, which would not stop the Yemeni group’s attacks on Israel. Also, according to Reuters, Saudi Arabia no longer requires normalizing relations with Israel as a condition to promote Saudi Arabia’s private nuclear program.
And on Sunday, the Trump administration bypassed Israel to sign a deal with Hamas, releasing Edan Alexander, the last known American hostage in Gaza, framing Trump as “remaining on all living hostages to put an end to this extremely brutal war.”
Israeli officials are now concerned about the week spent meeting and grieving Gulf leaders. This implies Trump’s stance as everyone was critical of Israel’s military attacks in Gaza and the ongoing humanitarian blockade, visiting war and ceasefire negotiations.
Until Trump’s trip, the US has been pushing Egypt and Qatar to persuade Hamas to agree to release some hostages.
The Trump administration seems to be aiming even higher now. Another source familiar with the issue has told CNN that the release of Alexander will lead to “negotiation of an immediate peace deal.”
A comprehensive agreement to end the war remains out of reach, but Trump has made it clear that it is his goal.
“Hopefully this is the first of the last steps needed to end this cruel conflict,” Trump told social media on Sunday.
As a result, Trump and Netanyahu appear to be more conflicted than ever before. A situation where Netanyahu explicitly revealed that he believes it is more important to defeat Hamas than to double the war and secure the release of hostages. If a contract with Hamas appears to be within reach for the return of more hostages, the US will encourage pressure on Israel to accept it, another source familiar with the matter said.
Up until now there have been major questions about whether Hamas leader Mohammad Singhwar, Gaza, would agree to a limited deal. However, Hamas seems to have masterfully surpassed Israel when it comes to Trump this time.
And Trump’s visit to this area serves as a pressure point that could potentially unlock the deal.
“There must be practices that are not surprising,” said Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, D.C., and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “If not, trust, which is so essential to this partnership, really, really quickly breaks apart.”
Trump is moving forward “like a bulldozer” for what he wants, Shapiro told CNN. That wish list currently includes progress on the ceasefire contract and hostage release. Netanyahu’s tendency to step into key decisions and his history of prioritizing his own political survival appears to have contributed to the White House’s willingness to refrain from consultations with Israel over important decisions, he said.
“He is clearly annoyed with Netanyahu, as was the case with all the other presidents who worked with Netanyahu,” Shapiro said.
Meanwhile, Trump man from Jerusalem, US ambassador Mike Huckabee, tried to downplay speculation about a rift between the two leaders, saying he “full hopes” Trump will visit Israel this year.
“I never cared about as many presidents as President Trump has for Israel,” Huckabee told Israeli Channel 13 News in an interview that aired Saturday night. “And I think his relationship with the Prime Minister is amazing.”
The Israelis see it differently.
Last Thursday’s prominent Yedios Afronot newspaper homepage showed a Trump cartoon with the headline “Policy of Surprising”. Netanyahu sits nervously in the background as Trump prepares the soup.
Even the Israeli Heyom newspaper of Protulamp is locking the apparent rift with Netanyahu. Columnist Shai Golden fully captures the trap that Netanyahu fell into Trump in an opinion article over the weekend, saying, “The old thing is, ‘Beware of what you want, you might get it,” and that’s it. ”
