Hong Kong
CNN
–
As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for frequent choreography for the “Victory Day” military parade on May 9th, he was clear who was on top of the guest list, Xi Jinping.
Chinese leaders are scheduled to arrive in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day state visit, according to Beijing, deepen their “mutual trust” with Putin and attend the activities to mark the 80th anniversary of the World War II victory over Nazi Germany.
XI attendees strongly demonstrate the unity between the two dictators and their country at the moment when US President Donald Trump’s “America First” diplomacy rocked a global alliance and shaped the relationship between Washington and both powers. In his remarks last month, Putin described XI as his “main guest.”
Lam and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko’s Vietnamese President Louise Inacio Lula da Silva are among the other leaders expected to attend the celebration. Conditioning from the honor guards of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army also joins the parade that takes place in the shadow of Putin’s attack on Ukraine.
To commemorate the event, Putin proposed a three-day ceasefire with Kiev. This is the decision that some analysts say was motivated by their desire to uninterruptedly show off Russian military power in front of foreign high-ranking officials. Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky rejected the proposal, calling it a “theatrical performance,” and reiterating his support for the previous US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
Earlier this month, Zelensky warned senior officials traveling to an event where Kiev “cannot be held responsible for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine launched multiple drone attacks in Moscow during the course of the war, including on a recent day. Three people were killed in the biggest attack on the Russian capital in March.
Ukraine says the attack is intended to destroy the key key to Moscow’s war effort, and responds to Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian territory, including residential areas and energy infrastructure.
Russia’s “Victory Day” on May 9th is one of the nation’s biggest celebrations and marks the surrender of Nazi Germany to the Soviet Union in 1945. The supply of military hardware has been declining over the past few years as Russian tanks are mobilised at the forefront of its war.
Europe celebrates VE Day and marks Germany’s surrender in all aspects a day ago.
Changing landscape
It is the third visit in Russia, more than three years ago, since President Putin began his war more than three years ago, but there have been many changes since his last visit over six months ago.
China and the US are now trapped in an escalating trade war that threatens a major impact on both economies, and Beijing realizes that it needs to strengthen friendships and trade partnerships with other countries, including Russia. The top US and China officials are scheduled to meet in Switzerland later this week.
Meanwhile, Moscow has discovered a much more sympathetic America under Trump compared to his predecessor, but has recently misunderstood the recent warming link between Washington and Kiev as the US president appears to be losing patience with Putin in search of an end to the conflict.
“Now… China and Russia have more incentives to present a solid image of their collaboration,” said Yun Sang, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.
“Given the turbulence created by Washington’s policy around the world, China and Russia show that international issues still have stability and reliability, they are already ongoing.
For Moscow and Beijing, the event celebrating the end of World War II, which saw the formation of a UN-led international system, creates an ideal background for the United States to play such rhetoric when it leaves several UN agencies and rattles off longtime alliances in Europe.
An article published by a newcomer at Chinese provincial news agency argued that XI and Putin “lead the right direction for global governance, explicitly oppose unilateralism and bullying, and work together to promote an equal and orderly world with multipolarity and comprehensive economic globalization.”
The two leaders are known for performing shows of their close relationship, but in recent years they have strengthened the country’s economic and security ties. They also cooperated to frame themselves as responsible alternative leaders for the US, despite Russia having waged wars in Ukraine, Beijing increasing attacks in the South China Sea and Taiwan, a self-employed island that Beijing declares itself.
Despite Beijing’s claim to be neutrality in conflict, the country’s relations have only been accelerated by the Russian war as Beijing emerged as an important lifeline for Moscow.
China and Russia reached record bilateral trade last year as sanctions-bound Moscow increasingly seeks China as an export market and product source. The Western government says double-use products from China, such as microchips and mechanical parts, support Moscow’s defense industrial base, and lose Beijing’s goodwill in Europe. China defends “normal trade” with Russia.
“Stand together”
On the visit, observers say XI is trying to ensure China has continued access to Russia’s natural resources and markets. Currently, the country faces 145% tariffs on most exports to the US, throwing high retaliation tariffs on its own in a fixed trade war.
“Given the current US administration’s policy towards China, China really needs Russia in many ways. It’s trade wise and energy resources wise,” said Tamas Mathura, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
But these same trade tensions, and Trump’s questions with Europe about US economic and strategic ties, have also created potential opening up by China to repair its ties with Europe, analysts say it is likely to be recognized as XI navigates diplomacy over the coming days.
“Many European observers watch and listen to Xi Jinping’s speech in Moscow. Will he talk about peace in Ukraine in a meaningful way? Machula said.
A similar question has been raised about whether changing the US stance will allow Moscow to approach Washington at the cost of Beijing.
In recent months, Trump appears to have been open to concessions courtesy of Moscow, aiming to overturn traditional US policies against Russia, parrot Kremlin rhetoric about the war in Ukraine, and end the conflict he has established.
But despite the 30-day Ukraine-backed ceasefire proposal, the Trump administration has shown signs of impatience with Putin’s ongoing onslaught on Ukraine. And last week, Washington and Kiev’s signature on natural resources agreements is widely seen as strengthening Ukraine’s position with Washington.
Anyway, close observers of both XI and Putin’s governments say there is little incentive to cast what was carefully crafted relationship with deep ideological and economic interests.
That was the main view from Beijing. According to Wang Yi-Wei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Lenmin University, China’s capital, “Russia is “being jointly with China” by supporting the international order, and “in cooperation with China.”
“Russia has a distrust of the United States…and it cannot be changed (by Trump) basic hostile attitudes towards Russia from the United States and in general from the West,” Wang said.
Instead, analysts say that XI and Putin’s upcoming meetings are likely to send another message. China and Russia remain consistent as always.
