Gamblers on prediction betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi appear to be skeptical about the possibility of a $2,000 customs dividend check.
President Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate plan could cost twice as much as it earns
President Donald Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate plan could cost $600 billion a year, twice as much as tariff revenue.
President Donald Trump has floated the idea of sending $2,000 tariff dividend checks to Americans. Will that happen? You can place bets.
Bettors on prediction betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi appear to be skeptical.
President Trump recently hinted at the possibility of checks from tariff revenue. On Nov. 9, he posted on Truth Social that “everyone will receive a dividend of at least $2,000 per person (except for high earners!).”
Three days later, on November 12, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt was asked about dividends and echoed the president’s support for them. “The White House is fully committed to making that happen, and we are currently considering all legal options to make that happen.”
President Trump floated the idea of dividend rebates in July, saying that tariff revenue “could lead to some rebates, but the big thing we want to do is pay down the debt.”
President Trump said on Truth Social on November 10 that the $2,000 payments would go to “low- and moderate-income Americans.” But this isn’t the first time President Trump has hinted he’d give money to Americans, so taxpayers could be forgiven for being skeptical about the arrival of the checks. None of the checks resulted from the president’s February consideration of stimulus checks funded by expected savings from Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cost-cutting efforts.
Here’s what bettors on our prediction platform think about the possibility of a $2,000 tariff dividend check.
What does Polymarket think about the possibility of a customs dividend check?
Activity on Polymarket as of Saturday, November 15th suggests that users are skeptical about the dividend checks being sent to Americans.
The site says there is a 7% chance that President Trump will generate a tariff dividend in 2025, amounting to more than $950,000. Betting began on October 3 and rose to 17% on November 9, but has since declined.
President Trump, who floated the idea of tariff dividends for Americans in August, also mentioned the possibility of dividend checks in an Oct. 2 interview with One America News Network (OAN). “We’re probably looking at $1,000 to $2,000. That would be great,” he said.
Polymarket also has another tariff dividend bet, suggesting a 26% chance that President Trump will set a tariff dividend by March 31, 2026. The results reached a high of 44% on November 13th, with betting initiated on November 9th. But the odds for yes have declined since then. With volume above $19,620, fewer people were betting on this outcome.
Another bet was launched on Nov. 13, but lacked enough activity to reach the posted amount, raising questions about whether Americans will receive their tariff stimulus checks by Dec. 31. As of Saturday, November 15th, the chance was only 6%.
Polymarket activity also suggests skepticism about how big a revenue increase from President Trump’s tariffs will be. Active bets on the site that tariffs could generate more than $250 billion in 2025 fell to 6% from a high of 35% in April, with volume of more than $931,500.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit that studies fiscal policy, has so far estimated tariff revenue at about $100 billion, short of the $600 billion needed for the first tariff dividend check. The Tax Foundation, a nonprofit think tank, estimates that the net revenue from President Trump’s tariffs will be worth about $216 billion in fiscal year 2026, which begins Oct. 1.
What does Mr. Kalsi think about the possibility of a customs dividend investigation?
Skepticism is also growing on Calci, which as of Saturday, Nov. 15, pegged the odds of a user writing a check for $418,000 or more in 2025 to 5%, which is down from a high of 13.4% on Nov. 10, the day after betting began on Nov. 9.
The action against Carsi appears to indicate that users believe the Supreme Court will invalidate President Trump’s tariffs. The chance that the courts would rule in favor of President Trump’s tariffs was 24% as of Saturday, November 15th, for volumes of $1.17 million or more. This is down from a high of 58% just after the action began on September 2nd.
On November 5, the Supreme Court heard arguments on whether President Trump, rather than Congress, has the authority to impose significant tariffs on imported goods. The majority of the justices appeared skeptical of the Trump administration’s arguments.
“It’s difficult to convey.”
Scott Steinberg, a geopolitical futurist and keynote speaker at Futureproof Strategies, said the plan would need approval from Congress, but it’s uncertain whether there would be enough revenue to make the dividend checks viable. “It’s hard to see how the administration can actually make the math work without further increasing the parameters of the checks, and how these windfall revenues to civilians will leave enough revenue to pay down the national debt, as currently planned,” he told USA TODAY.
“Many citizens will be hoping to ease their financial burden, especially during the holiday and gift-giving season, and have money back in their pockets for once, rather than the other way around this year,” Steinberg said. “Still, it is difficult to know at this point whether there is a viable way to implement the concept, especially as originally sketched out, and whether there will be any real tangible benefits for comprehensive policy decisions.”
Contributed by: Reuters
Mike Snyder is a national trends news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, and X, and email him at: mike snyder & @mikegsnider.bsky.social & @mikesnider & msnider@usatoday.com
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