Kyiv
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Vladimir Putin started it. Joe Biden didn’t stop it. But regardless of his efforts to oppose it, this is the week when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be the war of President Donald Trump.
The world’s most powerful offices don’t always invite choices. Trump has mandated the US as a key Ukraine alliance and sponsor, which requires it to deal with the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.
Trump may have completely dropped the war. Instead, however, he chose to impose the power of his personality. Initially through the idea that it can be finished in 24 hours or a revised 100-day deadline. He then tried to navigate that character and cooperated with the Russian president. Initially, he publicly recognised Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky in an oval office, reflecting his story.
He slammed NATO allies hard and demanded that they pay more for the European defence. And then the diplomatic hard slogs splattered through the gear, and in the end it almost never happened.
But it wasn’t until the last two weeks that Trump’s decision and realization turned it into an issue he currently owns. He has seen Putin not wanting peace. He saw Ukraine urgently needing an arm, and he tried to help, albeit in an inactive way. He made the notable choice to respond to the usual rejected nuclear saber latting of former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev with a more difficult nuclear threat to position US nuclear submarines near Russia. The US has been a nuclear threat against Russia less than a month from suspending military aid to Ukraine.
Once this week is over, he will likely have to make the most consequential decision of the conflict as Trump displays the deadline for shortening the peace deal. He really hurts fines – is he imposing secondary tariffs on Russian energy customers? Maybe he accepts the US and its allies need to endure a bit of pain economically to inflict pain?
Impacting serious secondary sanctions on India and China could hit global energy markets. Trump posted Monday that he would increase tariffs on India as he was selling Russian crude oil for profit, and “didn’t mind the number of people killed by Russian war machines,” but he had not provided details of the new measure. India has not publicly stated whether it intends to stop purchasing Russian energy products. China is completely dependent on Russian oil and gas and cannot afford to stop buying it.
To avoid another “taco” moment for Trump to always kick out the chickens, Trump must cause some discomfort, and perhaps he will feel some backlash. Or, if offered to his special envoy, Steve Witkov on this week’s visit to Moscow, he can look for an off-ramp. Trump could probably accept a bilateral meeting with Putin as a sign of progress towards peace. But even this backdown would mean he left his indelible mark in the war – in the words of the former US Secretary of State regarding Iraq, if the US defeats it, they own it.
Trump cannot have it in both ways. By his nature, he seeks to be a fulcrum of all decisions and a lightning bolt of attention to certain issues. All the turning points so far are based on his personal choices and fantasies. And this contains an important lesson from the President of the United States.
Trump is his own problem and he can’t choose which issues he can ignore. Maga’s America First Platform may be about reducing Washington’s global footprint, but Trump doesn’t allow him to own only his success. Unless Trump reduces the American power footprint to zero globally – it’s not compatible with the personality of a president forced to “do” – America’s problems always have a few issues.
He says he hopes the war will stop. But that’s not enough. War does not adhere to everything.
Former US President Barack Obama inherited the war in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He came out fast from the former and doubled with the latter surge, but that didn’t work. Afghanistan became Obama’s war despite the chaos he inherited. Trump has been curbed by the chaos and he handed his quick fix to Biden, who was paraded as a Democrat failure, widely paraded by Republicans in the chaotic collapse of August 2021.
Trump faces the same problems as inheriting the crisis. He cannot hope or kajoru the conflict. His death on the battlefield, which he mourns, has a distant stitching and sadness, transforming this into an existential war of survival for the souls of the Kremlin and Ukrainian society.
Ukrainians want to live in peace without the sirens of the nightly air raids. Putin does not want peace, and instead his recent maximalist demands amount to something equivalent to Ukraine’s surrender.
Ultimately, this reflects the harsh reality that it should be considered Trump’s war. It is a critical conflict between his presidency and the post-9/11 era. The results define Europe’s security and China’s engagement over the next decade. China needs to understand that and win Russia. Russia sees the opportunity for the bloc’s weaknesses, as Europe understands it and arms itself. We will learn this week whether Trump will understand this and accept the uncomfortable, intense decisions that come with subsequent consequences.
