Why tensions between the US and Iran are rising towards conflict
President Trump has sent an aircraft carrier, several missile destroyers and fighter jets to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran.
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump could make good on his threat to attack Iran within days as the number of U.S. warships surrounding Iran grows and the administration presses Iran to quickly conclude a nuclear deal.
For weeks, President Trump has warned of a possible military attack on the Middle Eastern country as negotiators hold brokered talks with Iran to reach a deal. The White House has said a deal would avoid military action, and the administration is awaiting a proposal from Tehran ahead of the weekend.
The president acknowledged on February 20 that a limited strike against Iran is currently being considered. “I think that’s something we’re considering,” he said in response to a question.
After a discussion on Iran during a Feb. 18 status conference, senior administration officials told USA TODAY that President Trump could decide to attack Iran as early as this weekend. The official said the president’s options could be to attack Iran next weekend or not. The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic.
The next day, at a meeting of the Gaza Peace Commission on February 19, President Trump told attendees that they would know whether an agreement was possible within the next 10 days.
“We may or may not need to go a step further,” Trump said.
He said later in the day that the 15th was the longest.
A senior official told USA TODAY on February 19 that the US is waiting for a proposal from Iran and should receive one within the next two weeks.
White House says Trump has ‘all options’ for freedom
The Trump administration is currently engaged in negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear program, and the White House has repeatedly emphasized that Trump prefers a diplomatic path. However, mediated negotiations have not yet resulted in an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for the deal to include funding for Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxy forces, but experts say it is highly unlikely that Iran will accept the terms.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel on the evening of February 28th. President Trump typically consults close ally Israel on actions in the region and worked closely with Israel during the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities last June. Prime Minister Netanyahu also visited President Trump in Washington this month.
“There is no military solution to Iran’s nuclear program,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview on MSNOW’s “Morning Joe” on February 20.
“The only solution is diplomacy, which is why the United States is returning to the negotiating table and seeking an agreement,” he said.
But an Iranian diplomat said the country was ready for negotiations “as much as it is ready for war” if no deal is reached.
Multiple media outlets have reported in recent days that President Trump is considering a limited initial strike, but that an operation to decapitate Iran’s government or remove its leadership is also being considered.
The Department of Defense and U.S. Central Command referred USA TODAY’s requests for comment to the White House.
“President Trump’s first instinct has always been diplomacy and he has made clear that the Iranian regime should reach a deal. Of course, ultimately the president has all options at his disposal,” a White House official told USA TODAY in a statement.
President Trump has renewed his threats in recent months as the largest protests in decades erupted in the country and the Iranian regime launched a brutal crackdown that reportedly left thousands of people dead. President Trump had previously sent a message to protesters in a Truth Social post that “help is on the way,” but he has since shifted the focus of negotiations and possible military operations to Iran’s nuclear program.
Experts said Trump could launch an initial attack and expand depending on the situation.
“I think the idea of limited and expanded[attacks]is definitely on the table,” said Brian Carter, a research manager specializing in Iran for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
But Jennifer Kavanaugh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said even a limited attack could set the two countries on a path to escalation.
A limited strike “may be attempted by the military, but I find it hard to imagine that Iran would not retaliate.”
Iran has threatened to launch attacks on U.S. forces in the region under Trump. There are between 30,000 and 40,000 troops stationed in the area at any given time, said Col. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command.
“They have made it clear that they will retaliate, and once they do, the United States will have to retaliate,” Kavanaugh said. “Then you go into a cycle of strikes.”
President Trump’s threat looms over State of the Union
President Trump is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address to Congress on February 24th.
After coming under fire from MAGA Republicans for his frequent meetings with foreign leaders at the White House and his overall focus on fighting wars and forging peace deals, the president is increasing his domestic travel and hosting more economic events ahead of the midterm elections. He has held most of his meetings with visiting leaders privately since his first year in office, when many of them were publicly broadcast.
The prospect of a second attack on Iran would not be ideal just as President Trump plans to wreak havoc on Iran after speaking as part of an affordability tour in battleground states where his party needs wins to maintain its House majority.
President Trump first attacked Iran in June 2025, when U.S. military aircraft, directed by Trump, dropped more than a dozen penetrating bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now he is sending more and more military assets to the region to strengthen the threat.
There is currently one aircraft carrier and 10 warships in the region, and dozens of fighter jets, including F-22s and F-16s, were headed to U.S. military bases in the Middle East last week, according to open source accounts and news reports. They were accompanied by an air tanker used to refuel the plane during the flight. Another aircraft carrier is heading to the region with more naval destroyers.
The entire Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group and all U.S. military assets are not expected to arrive in the region until mid-March, a senior administration official said.
Allies have reportedly indicated they will not support the United States if President Trump launches an attack. The London Times reported on February 19 that Britain would not allow Trump to use its military bases for attacks, following similar statements from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Given the vast amount of U.S. firepower in the region, anything is possible, Carter said.
“The U.S. military has a wide enough range of assets to do basically everything from relatively limited strikes aimed at steering Iran in the right direction in negotiations, to strikes aimed at actually overthrowing the regime itself,” he said.
Kavanaugh said the more pressing issue is “next day strategy.”
“We don’t have short-term, limited campaigns here,” she said.
