Ravens-Steelers face big questions in Week 18
USAT’s Joe Rivera and Chris Bumbaka break down Lamar Jackson’s status and DK Metcalf’s suspension as the Steelers and Ravens battle it out for the AFC North.
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Is your New Year’s glass more than half full? At least we can say the College Football Playoff Selection Committee isn’t involved here. That being said, it’s time for the NFL to adjust the mostly sensible codified rules that determine who advances to the playoffs.
The rules as currently constructed guarantee that teams with losing records will host playoff games this season. Similarly, a divisional “champion” might be just one game above .500. On the other hand, teams that win a dozen or so games can be sent to the wild card game in a big way, a relative sin that is prevalent among some of the same elite teams.
This cannot continue.
If you watched Saturday afternoon’s literally soggy battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers (the Bucs won 16-14), you probably didn’t feel like you were witnessing a big-time player who deserves the comfort of home before next week’s postseason opener, just because an 8-9 record is good enough to win the lowly ACC, or NFC South. (OK, maybe we should should Find a way for the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, the NFC South who are currently playing much better football than the Panthers and Bucks, to also be in the running, could they be an at-large bid? )
Additionally, it would not be unheard of for the No. 4 seeded team (who would eventually become the NFC South champions) to host the conference championship game if enough upset befalls the higher-seeded team. By comparison, at least five teams could finish with 11 or more wins but no hope of a postseason home game. It’s just one year after the Minnesota Vikings were stuck in the Wild Card despite going 14-3 (the most wins ever for a team that didn’t win a division title).
Not sitting properly. This is similar to Boise State getting a CFP bye week, an oversight that was quickly corrected. The NFL could have addressed its own “problem” in 2025, with the Detroit Lions putting forward a proposal last March encouraging league owners to “amend the current playoff seeding system to allow wild card teams to be seeded higher than division champions if they perform better in the regular season.”
This is more than reasonable and absolutely the right approach for a football system geared towards creating parity. Why not give teams that actually perform well a seed commensurate with their win total?
Old-school purists, and I frequently count myself among them, would argue that a district championship is sacrosanct, an accomplishment worthy of an important home game to begin the postseason. Let’s be honest, it now looks a lot like the empty suits that once championed the sanctity and glitz of college football’s bowl system. Where would we be without the Dukes Mayo Bowl or the pearl-clutching Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl? Somewhat surprisingly, the Lions’ proposal actually garnered some attention last spring before it was finally tabled, but perhaps the inaction one Saturday in January will give it even more traction in the future.
And of course, 40 years ago, when there were three teams in a 14-team conference, it was easy to defend the argument of paying district winners well. At the time, half of most teams’ schedules consisted of district opponents, essentially making those games more valuable and appealing.
However, the NFL realigned in 2002, splitting into eight four-team divisions across two conferences. In the era of the 17-game regular season, 65% of a given club’s schedule is against non-division opponents. That said, it’s not uncommon for a team to succeed against potentially subpar divisional opponents, struggle mightily against other teams in the league, and still end up taking home the crown. Despite a strike season, the 2025 Bucs or Panthers will be just the fifth sub-.500 team in the Super Bowl era (dating back to 1966) to make the playoffs. This is something that had never happened before the 2010 campaign.
And Sunday night’s winner-take-all AFC North game between the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) will see a similar payoff, even though the other six AFC teams in the playoffs have all won at least 11 games.
Divisions make sense in the NFL. They maintain and/or create natural geographic rivalries and have a little extra guaranteed currency when breaking ties for a playoff spot. However, just one win will only qualify them for the playoffs. Even though these Bucks and Panthers compete against each other on a daily basis, there’s no way they deserve a higher seed than the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams, the teams that made the NFC West the league’s most dominant division in 2025, along with the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks. Baker Mayfield’s next pick, or Bryce Young’s next 100-yard passing day, will have to take place as a No. 7 seed, struggling in front of hostile fans and being ridiculed accordingly (while reveling in their shortcomings).
And maybe you think this is a problem that will resolve itself. The 2022 Bucs, the last team with a losing record in the playoffs, got smoked at home by Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys in Tom Brady’s final appearance as a player Monday night. However, two of the four teams that won the district championship despite having losing records actually advanced to the district round.
What is the conclusion?Tradition is good. Fairness is better.
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