Tariff dividend checks discussed by President Trump at Cabinet meeting
President Donald Trump discusses tariff dividend checks at Cabinet meeting.
Fox – 5 DC
President Donald Trump is sticking with his plan to return tariff dividends to Americans in 2026.
President Trump appeared to nod, calling the issue of “affordability” a “Democrat scam” during a two-hour-plus Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Dec. 2, during which he discussed the possibility of checks.
“Next year is expected to be the biggest tax refund season in history, and we’ve taken in literally trillions of dollars in taxes, and we’re going to refund them in tariffs,” President Trump said at the beginning of the meeting. “In addition to debt reduction, we intend to give good dividends to the people.”
President Trump said that ultimately, customs revenue could become “so large” that the government could stop collecting income taxes. “Whether you get rid of it or just keep it for fun, you can pay it for a really low amount, much lower than it is now, and you won’t have to pay income tax,” he said.
Regarding expected tariff revenues, the Congressional Budget Office on November 15th lowered its forecast for tariff revenues over the next 10 years from $3.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion. That would result in an additional $500 billion in debt interest payments, totaling a total value to the government of $3 trillion.
But critics of the administration’s tariff plan question whether reimbursing dividends makes economic sense, citing opaque tariff revenue and the high cost of rebates.
The nonpartisan nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that President Trump’s tariffs will generate about $300 billion a year, with each round of tariff dividends costing about $600 billion. “Additional customs revenue should be used to reduce the deficit, rather than passing that revenue on to taxpayers in the form of cash dividends,” the group said.
Are you receiving a $2,000 customs dividend check?
That remains to be seen. President Trump has been talking about dividend rebates since July, saying that revenue from tariffs, which the president began implementing in March and April, “could lead to some rebates, but the big thing we want is to pay down the debt.”
President Trump said last month that tariff dividend checks would be issued “probably in the middle of next year” and would amount to “a few thousand dollars to middle-income, moderate-income individuals.”
But estimates from the Tax Foundation, another nonpartisan nonprofit group, suggest that the plan could be cost-prohibitive and that tariff revenues may not be as high as expected. President Trump’s tariffs are expected to raise $2.1 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years, but that drops to $1.6 trillion after foreign retaliation and other negative economic impacts are factored in.
The tariffs could be struck down by the Supreme Court, which, while hearing arguments on November 5, appears to be questioning whether President Trump has the authority to impose them.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” on Nov. 16 that if tariffs continue, some kind of legislation will be needed to provide refunds.
Why would President Trump want to issue tariff checks?
Probably because the Americans helped pay the customs duties. After signing an executive order exempting certain agricultural products such as bananas, coffee and beef from the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2, President Trump told reporters on Air Force One on November 14 that the tariffs “could potentially increase” prices.
But Trump said the costs of the tariffs are “to a significant degree… being borne by other countries.”
Still, the Tax Foundation estimates that the tariffs would represent an increase in taxes of $1,100 per U.S. household in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026.
The group said that rather than issuing dividends, “a better way to provide relief would be to simply eliminate tariffs altogether.”
Contributor: Francesca Chambers and Reuters
Mike Snyder is a national trends news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, and X, and email him at: mike snyder & @mikegsnider.bsky.social & @mikesnider & msnider@usatoday.com
What is everyone talking about? Sign up for our trending newsletter and get the latest news of the day
