The Cook Political Report only flipped 18 districts in the Democratic direction.
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WASHINGTON – Democrats are now more likely to take back the House this year.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has swung 18 midterm elections in their favor. In an analysis released Jan. 15, the outlook for eight races shifted from “like a Democrat” to “solid Democratic,” and seven others moved into “toss-up” or “leaning Democratic” territory. The other three changed from “Solid Republican” to “Probably Republican.”
Among the areas currently up for grabs are Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District and New York’s 17th Congressional District, both of which currently have Republican members. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District and Texas’ 34th Congressional District, also represented by Democrats, initially tilted Republican but have similarly shifted voting ranges.
Cook analyst Erin Covey said President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and Democrats’ strong performance in recent special elections are both indicators that favor Democrats.
“House Democrats only need to flip three seats to gain a majority,” Covey wrote. “Even if Democrats lose some of the most difficult seats, the number of Republicans at stake should give them more than a good chance of winning 218 seats.”
A series of unexpected vacancies is already causing problems for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. He is running by just two votes, including one Republican from Kentucky who often votes against policies favored by President Trump. A special election later this spring will fill another Democratic seat, shrinking the Republican majority to just one vote.
A mid-level Republican redistricting push may ultimately help the party, but it hasn’t materialized in the way the White House had hoped. Last November, California voters approved their own gerrymandering proposal to increase Democratic seats in Washington. On January 14, a federal appeals court rejected arguments by the Trump administration and the California Republican Party that the new maps favored Latino voters and other groups.
Despite the political headwinds, Johnson is confident in his chances in the midterms, saying Republicans are “outperforming Democrats in fundraising.”
“We’re very bullish about the midterm elections,” he said recently. “We are absolutely confident that the majority will grow.”
Zachary Schermele is a Congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can email us at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and on Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social..
