In 2020, it was toilet paper. 2021 was gas. In the 2024 US longshoremen’s strike, it was also…well, toilet paper. Groceries such as milk, eggs and bread are set to become staples ahead of the winter storm that threatens to hit much of the country this weekend.
Panic buying is not a new phenomenon, but it can be a nuisance, especially for people who try to buy groceries in their regular carts after a severe weather forecast.
Photos, news reports and social media posts showed empty grocery shelves across the country following forecasts of extreme cold and heavy snow. It’s not just cans of soup and batteries that shoppers are stocking up on, but fresh produce and regular groceries as well.
And while the storm is predicted to be severe, experts say it doesn’t make sense for people to stock up on toilet paper at local stores. It’s fear and maybe a little bit of peer pressure as well.
What causes panic buying? Of course there is fear too.
Harsh Shefrin, a behavioral finance professor at Santa Clara University, told USA TODAY that the primary emotions that drive panic buying are precisely panic and fear.
“The characteristic of fear is that it makes us overly pessimistic. So when that emotion takes over, we tend to act as if we are overly pessimistic and think in extreme terms,” he said. So when a storm hits or a supply chain is disrupted, it might not be a big deal, but our brains tend to think about the worst-case scenario and what we have to do to survive it.
“The second thing is, we want to hear what people are afraid of. I think there are two things they’re afraid of,” Shefrin said. “Their first fear is that they will be deprived of the necessities of life: food, clothing, and shelter. So their reaction is to try to satisfy or cope with that fear by hoarding.”
Shefrin explained that something called availability bias also plays a role in these scenarios. In other words, it is basically “invisible and outside of consciousness.” We tend not to be afraid of something going on in the world if no one is talking about it. However, when you focus on something, fear can quickly set in.
“The second thing that many people subconsciously fear is that everyone else is stocking up and they won’t have it,” Shefrin said. “And not only will they survive, but they will feel like fools and look like fools in the eyes of their friends and neighbors, those whose honor they want to secure.”
Panicked shoppers buy what they know
As for what people buy? Well, it has a lot to do with what we see other people doing. You might not walk into a store thinking to buy toilet paper, but if you look around and find the toilet paper aisle nearly empty, you’re likely to grab some stock “just in case,” Shefflin said.
Also, when people panic buy, they choose products based on their own life experiences. If you have experience preparing for hurricanes but not snowstorms, you may remember the last time you endured a hurricane and make shopping decisions based on that, even if you didn’t face the same situation.
“When you think of things that scare people, what images do you have in their heads? What do they have in mind? They’re starving, they’re out of milk, they’re out of bread,” Shefrin said. “So they’re thinking about what’s going to change because they’re trapped, surrounded by snow and can’t get out.”
Panic buying is often a self-fulfilling prophecy, Shefrin explains. There may not have been a toilet paper shortage until someone heard and spread the word that there might be a toilet paper shortage. Toilet paper shortages are occurring as people rush to stores to buy larger quantities than usual.
And ironically, the more we talk about panic buying or see others doing it, Shefflin said, the more likely it is to happen.
“That’s just human nature,” he said.
