The White House agreement on Monday on the next step — a bilateral meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Voldimir Zelensky — appeared unanimous. Then came the Russian reaction.
“This idea was debated that it would be appropriate to study opportunities to raise the level of representatives in Russia and Ukraine,” Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov explains reporters about President Donald Trump’s call from President Putin. Neither mention of a leader by name shows any indication that “representative” can be raised to that level.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov won a more reconciliatory tone in a television interview with the state later Tuesday. “We don’t reject any form, not bilateral or trilateral,” he insisted. But: “Contacts, including the best officials, should be prepared with the utmost care.”
When the Kremlin speaks, it means they are not ready to agree to this.
And that shouldn’t be a surprise.
This is a war that President Putin began when he unilaterally acknowledged the clumps of Ukraine’s lands (self-style Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic) to be independent. He argues that Ukraine is “an inviolable part of (Russia’s) unique history, culture and spiritual space” and that separation from Russia is a historical mistake.
So, if this meeting occurs – as Orysia Lutsevich, director of Russia and Eurasian Program M at Chatham House, puts it, President Putin “must accept the failure to sit with a president who is thinking of a joke from a non-existent country.”
It was also a major reversal that was difficult to explain to the Russian people. “Zelensky was a puppet in the Nazi, the western (Ukraine) because he was brainwashing Russians on television in the province.
Not only does the Kremlin routinely question the legitimacy of Ukrainian leaders, it has stuck to postponing Ukrainian elections, not only is it illegal under martial law, but its latest memorandum of “peace” requires Ukraine to hold elections before the final peace treaty is signed. Putin and other Russian officials rarely mention Zelensky by name, preferring the scathing moniker of the “Kiev regime.” And remember that it was Zelensky who traveled to Turkey, just to send a delegation led by a writer of historical textbooks, and Putin was the one who traveled to Turkey, just to send a delegation led by a writer of historical textbooks.
Tatiana Stanobaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russian Eurasian Centre and founder of R. Politic, which provides news and analysis on Russia, believes Putin’s meeting with Zelensky is not important for Russia to stand up to the west rather than the West, but he insists that if he considers it to be successful, he can still take the meeting.
“The important requests need to be on the table and Zelensky must be fine to talk about it,” she told CNN in an interview Tuesday. For now, Zelensky has ruled out these important requests, including the renunciation of Ukraine’s territory. But she argued that Putin sees Trump as the key to changing it.
“Trump is seen as an enabler of Russia’s vision of reconciliation, and this is why the US is supposed to work with Kiev to encourage them to be more flexible and more open to Russia’s demands.”
Stanovaya suggested that Russia might try to maintain the US by doing what Ushakov had proposed and proposing a new round for Istanbul, but perhaps proposed with a high-level delegation, including Ushakov himself and Foreign Minister Lavrov. However, he does not risk an “ambush” just by sitting with Zelensky and finding that all his requests have been denied.
Trump ended his day on Monday by posting the true social society that he “started a meeting arrangement between President Putin and Zelensky.” By the time he woke up and dialed the Fox News breakfast show on Tuesday morning, this seemed to be crazy about him. “It’s like setting up with Putin and Zelensky. They need to call shots. We’re 7,000 miles away,” he said.
Putin has no reason to acquiesce at this point. Having put zero concessions in place, he was rewarded with the grand summit in Alaska, the reduced demands by Trump to sign a ceasefire before peace talks, and the ultimate collapse of all the sanctions to date. With the scale of nightly drone attacks on Ukrainian cities so far in August, Russia increased them again on Monday night, launching 270 drones and 10 missiles. If Trump’s pressure on Zelensky has not yet produced the outcome Moscow wants, there is always a military force to rely on.
Russia’s only wildcard at this point is who Trump is responsible for when this latest peace effort fails.
