President Trump emphasizes affordability in second-year agenda
President Donald Trump’s second-year agenda has shifted focus from his MAGA wish list to tackling the cost of living.
Inflation fell to 2.4%, unemployment fell and U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau’s report is considered by economists to be the “gold standard” for data.
On paper, the economy appears to be stabilizing.
But many Americans are struggling to buy groceries, and even high-income earners say they feel like they’re in “survival mode.” Workers are holding on to their jobs, fearing they can’t afford to lose them. The Conference Board’s January consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2014.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said the disconnect between what people are saying about the economy and what the hard numbers are showing widened after the coronavirus pandemic, but has since narrowed slightly and is still “not back to normal.”
“This kind of post-pandemic puzzle has been plaguing us for some time, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be solved overnight,” Adams said. “After these very large shocks, getting the economy back to normal can be a slow and painful process.”
Economists point to a confluence of factors. Americans are aware of these factors: prices remain significantly higher than before the pandemic, wage increases have not fully offset cumulative cost increases for many households, and the labor market is no longer buoyant.
Are the government’s economic figures reliable?
Some critics have questioned whether the government’s numbers can be trusted after President Donald Trump’s decision to fire the BLS director last year raised concerns about the agency’s independence and credibility.
But months later, there is no public evidence that the data was manipulated, and Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said any tampering would likely be discovered by private forecasters or private officials.
National economic indicators are estimates based on sample surveys and are not a complete census of all households or employers. BLS will revise the numbers as more complete data becomes available. While monthly estimates are subject to error and declining survey response rates can impact the report, economists say the broader trend line is generally reliable, especially when viewed against other data.
“I understand that over the years, individuals have certainly been questioned, if not criticized, for relying on macroeconomic data even when they feel it doesn’t quite align with their own views,” Hamrick said. “But it’s also true that macro data is macro: It might be sunny in my neighborhood, but it might be raining in someone else’s neighborhood. These two realities of experience are not contradictory.”
Post-pandemic sticker shock never went away
Inflation is hovering at 2.4%, close to the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and price growth has slowed since last year. However, slower inflation does not mean lower prices. This means that prices are increasing at a slower pace than before.
In June 2022, the inflation rate reached 9.1%, the highest level in 40 years. The rise continued in 2021, 2022, and early 2023.
Since the beginning of 2021, consumer prices have increased by 22.7% and wages by 21.5% in late 2025, Bankrate analysis found. Not everyone has received a raise. Wage growth for low-wage workers is slower than for higher-income earners, according to data from the Atlanta Fed.
“No one is talking about a return to the prices we were used to before the inflation spike,” said Dr. Wayne Winegarden, a senior economics fellow at the Pacific Institute. “We lost that position and we need to accelerate our revenue to get it back.”
Housing costs are the largest recurring expense for many Americans, so it’s troubling that they aren’t fully reflected in the BLS Consumer Price Index. While the index tracks rent costs, it doesn’t directly capture mortgage payments or the difficulties many Americans have in trying to save for a down payment.
“Housing is one of the ways that families, especially low- and middle-income households, save and create wealth,” said Bernard Jarosz, chief economist at Oxford Economics, adding that when housing is unaffordable, “that just weighs on people and upsets people, and I think that’s a difficult thing to understand.”
There are also psychological factors. While some prices, such as eggs and gasoline, are down, consumers tend to focus on the parts that are going up, Adams said.
Employment growth is uneven across industries
While the monthly employment report may be better than expected, as it was in January, it is still a forecast and revisions are common.
In a revised version of the BLS released at the same time as the January jobs report, the BLS lowered its 2025 job growth forecast from 584,000 to 181,000, marking a significant slowdown from last year.
Economists describe the labor market as an environment in which there are “fewer jobs and fewer layoffs.” Employer caution can be attributed to several factors, including continued rate uncertainty and the introduction of artificial intelligence to reshape hiring plans.
Americans’ experiences in the job market vary depending on who they are and what they do. Much of the recent employment growth has been concentrated in health care and social assistance. Workers outside of these industries may face a more difficult search.
“It would be inappropriate to look at the historically low unemployment rate, most recently at 4.3%, and say that it is completely consistent with the lived experience of every American worker,” Hamrick said. “This is a number that measures the entire U.S. workforce of millions of people.”
Weingarten added that individuals know their financial situation and understand that it may differ from the national trend line of numbers.
“If a person is in a healthy financial situation and is having difficulty finding work, then the job market is tough,” Weingarten said.
Contact Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her at X @rachelbarber_
