Why “Avatar 3” is eligible for box office awards

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This year’s Golden Globes box office categories include movies that haven’t grossed a penny at the box office, at least not yet.

The 2026 Golden Globe nominations were announced on Monday, Dec. 8, and included the upcoming “Avatar: Fire and Ash” in the movie and box office categories. “F1: The Movie,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” “Sinners,” “Weapons,” “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2” were also nominated for the award.

But many were baffled by the Avatar sequel’s inclusion in a category that honors films that are box office hits. After all, Fire and Ash hasn’t been released yet, so there’s no box office revenue to speak of. James Cameron’s sci-fi sequel won’t be released in U.S. theaters until December 19th.

This is possible because, according to Golden Globe rules, films released after November 22 may be “eligible” for box office awards based on “projected box office performance and/or streaming viewing numbers from recognized industry sources.”

Therefore, “Fire and Ash” could be nominated, even though it hasn’t won yet, as it is expected to earn enough to qualify for this category.

This is a safe assumption based on the performance of the two previous “Avatar” films. The original “Avatar,” released in 2009, was the highest-grossing movie of all time, grossing a staggering $2.9 billion, not adjusted for inflation. The 2022 sequel Avatar: The Way of Water became the third highest-grossing film of all time with $2.3 billion.

To be eligible for Best Film and Box Office Awards, a film must earn $150 million at the worldwide box office (including at least $100 million in North America) and “and/or a commensurate digital streaming audience.” So Fire and Ash could theoretically earn more than $2 billion less at the box office than its predecessor, but it could still qualify.

The Golden Globe Awards for Film and Box Office were introduced to the 2024 awards ceremony as part of an effort to give mainstream blockbusters a greater presence in the awards season. The first-ever winner was “Barbie,” with the original “Wicked” winning in 2025.

According to Golden Globe Awards regulations, the box office award recognizes “the most critically acclaimed, highest grossing, and/or most viewed film of the year that achieved cinematic excellence and widespread support from audiences around the world, as determined by Golden Globe voters.”

Notably, while “Avatar: Fire and Ashes” was nominated for the box office award, it lost out on the Best Motion Picture Drama award, which the original “Avatar” won in 2010. The sequel, The Way of Water, was also nominated in the same category. Similarly, Wicked: For Good surprisingly wasn’t nominated in the comedy/musical film category after the first film was nominated in that category.

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