Who will and can play in the NCAA Tournament?

The first three No. 1 seeds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament are all but set.

The intrigue of the final weekend of the regular season leading up to the conference tournament is the battle between No. 4 Connecticut State and No. 5 Florida State for the final No. 1 seed. The Huskies are coming off a head-to-head win against the Gators, but perhaps no team in the SEC is as hot as Florida, which is on a 30-point winning streak.

And of course, there are bubble teams, where most of the plot centers around this time of year. Several other Power 4 conference teams (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) enter the final weekend of the regular season with something to prove to get into the Big Dance.

Auburn and Southern California ended up on the wrong side of the bubble near the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) is having a perfect season, but some analysts say it will still be on the bubble if it can’t win the Mid-American Conference tournament.

Below are the latest NCAA Tournament standings predictions, including games played through Wednesday, March 4th.

March Madness bracket predictions

last four in

Santa Clara**
SMU**
Indiana**
New Mexico**

first four out

auburn
san diego state
VCU
California

No.1 seed

Duke (AQ — ACC)
Arizona (AQ — Big 12)
Michigan State (AQ — Big 10)
UConn (AQ — Big East)

With the first three No. 1 seeds almost decided, Florida State is pushing UW for the final No. 1 seed, but the Huskies’ victory in the head-to-head matchup on Dec. 9, 2025 gives them the upper hand. But the Gators winning the SEC might change the equation there.

Type 2

Florida (AQ — SEC)
illinois
houston
michigan

Entering the weekend, Florida State had won back-to-back SEC games to reach 30 points, including one against lowly Mississippi State. Michigan State may have a chance to clinch the No. 2 seed if it defeats rival Michigan in the final game of the regular season.

Type 3

Purdue
nebraska
iowa
Gonzaga (AQ — West Coast Conference)

Purdue, along with Michigan State, still has a spot at the No. 2 seed depending on how the season goes. The Boilermakers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games, but they have enough talent to cause trouble in the NCAA Tournament regardless of seeding.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones have been on the back foot in the final weeks of the season in the race for not just the No. 1 seed, but the No. 2 seed as well.

Type 4 seeds

Texas Tech University
Kansas
virginia
Alabama

Alabama’s recent loss to Georgia certainly hurts a little, but it helps that they’re still ahead of several SEC sixth-seeded teams they’ve beaten so far. Although Texas Tech lost JT Toppin this season, it is a team that could move up in the seeding rankings if it performs well in the conference tournament.

No.5 seeds

Vanderbilt
tennessee
arkansas
st john’s

Vanderbilt entered the final weekend in good position with a win over Ole Miss. The Commodores end their season Saturday against rival Tennessee. St. John’s has a chance to beat UConn in the Big East Conference Tournament and earn a seeding spot.

6th type seeds

north carolina
Louisville
wisconsin
kentucky

The season-ending game between Kentucky and Florida could give the Wildcats some momentum, or it could keep them on the bubble for some. But while they’ll likely play regardless of that game, it’s hard to gauge how the Wildcats will fare in the postseason.

Louisville’s 15-point win over Syracuse halts its recent drop in seeding.

Type 7

miami
st mary’s
Utah (AQ — Mountain West)
St. Louis (AQ — Atlantic 10)

On a three-game winning streak and winning nine of their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes are a dangerous team that can get hot at the right time.

Type 8

brigham young
georgia
villanova
Clemson

BYU enters the tournament having started the season 16-1, but the Cougars have lost nine of their last 13 games, including three in a row, and are outside of seeding. Don’t sleep on the Villanova Wildcats, who have lost more than half this season to UW and St. John’s University.

9th seed

University of California Los Angeles
iowa
north carolina
missouri

The Bruins are gaining momentum at the perfect time of the season. UCLA has won against Nebraska and Illinois in recent weeks, and Mick Cronin’s team has a resume that ranks inside the top 40. The Bruins have gone from being a bubble team to securing a single-digit seed.

No.10 seeds

texas
Texas A&M
central florida
ohio

No.11 seeds

Miami (Ohio) (AQ — Central America)
cincinnati
Santa Clara**
Southern Methodist**
Indiana**
New Mexico**

The Lobos are still on the bubble after Wednesday’s loss to Colorado State, but are currently still on track inside for one of the final spots.

Meanwhile, Indiana State took advantage of its chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament with a long-awaited big win over Minnesota.

Cincinnati had a Quad 1 win over BYU in the recent restart and also has wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. In these predictions, the Bearcats will avoid the “best four” and enter the tournament. SMU is another team that continues to struggle despite a strong start to the season.

No.12 seeds

South Florida (AQ — America)
Belmont (AQ — Missouri Valley)
Yale University (AQ — Ivy League)
McNeese (AQ — Southland)

No.13 seeds

High Point (AQ — Big South)
Hawaii (AQ — Big West)
UNC Wilmington (AQ — Colonial Athletic Association)
Sam Houston State University (AQ — Conference USA)

No.14 Seed

East Tennessee (AQ — South)
St. Thomas (AQ — Summit League)
Austin Peay (AQ — Atlantic Sun)
Utah Valley (AQ — Western Athletic)

No.15 seeds

Northern Colorado (AQ — Big Sky)
Navy (AQ — Patriot League)
Merrimack (AQ — Metro Atlantic Athletic)
Wright State University (AQ — Horizon)

No.16 Seed

Troy (AQ — Sunbelt)
LIU (AQ — Northeast)
Bethune Cookman (AQ — Southwest Atlantic)**
Tennessee (AQ — Ohio Valley)**
Howard (AQ — Mid-Eastern Athletic)**
UMBC (AQ — America East)**

** indicates played in first 4 games

US - NEA

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