The president said the election security bill would “guarantee the midterm elections” for Republicans. The available data are less clear. The reason is as follows
Could the SAVE America Act actually pass Congress?
President Trump said the SAVE Act would “guarantee” Republican victory in the midterm elections. What does the bill include, and is there a chance it will actually pass?
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is urging Congressional Republicans to pass tough new voter registration requirements, arguing the legislation will benefit the party in the upcoming election.
President Trump told Republican lawmakers gathered at a golf resort in Doral, Florida on March 9, “This guarantees we’ll have a midterm election,” urging them to make the midterm election a top priority. “My opinion is that if you don’t understand it, you’ll be in trouble.”
The fact that Republicans are so enthusiastic about the bill, known informally as the SAVE Act, suggests they are confident it will benefit in a year when Republicans expect to lose their House majority.
Meanwhile, Democrats uniformly oppose the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, and voting and civil rights advocates worry that the bill will disenfranchise many voters who lack access to proof of citizenship. This risk is typically seen as a threat to Democrats, whose supporters are disproportionately young, nonwhite, and low-income.
But does the SAVE Act actually give Republicans a partisan advantage? The evidence is unclear.
The bill would require Americans to present proof of citizenship, such as a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization document, to register to vote in federal elections. The provisions under consideration would also significantly limit or eliminate mail-in voting and require people nationwide to show a government-issued photo ID to vote, which is currently required only in some states.
Democrats overwhelmingly say they support election security and voter ID measures to prevent noncitizens and other ineligible people from registering or voting, but note that such cases are extremely rare. But they argue that the bill’s citizenship proof requirements for registration will deter many voters.
“Under the SAVE Act, you can’t use a driver’s license to register to vote,” Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois said on the X show on March 19. “Republicans want you to buy a passport instead. If you can afford it. This is a modern-day poll tax.”
Here’s what we know, according to voting rights groups, legal analysis and other data.
“Political implications may vary from state to state.”
One of the most widely cited findings in this debate comes from a study by the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, which has studied the issue for years.
In its March 2025 report, “Who lacks documentation of citizenship?”, the Center conducted three in-depth studies that included a nationally representative sample of the adult U.S. adult population.
The study states, “Many Americans of all political identities do not have a DPOC, a document proving their citizenship. Further research is needed to understand what impact, if any, the SAVE Act will have on election outcomes.”
National surveys have found that people who don’t have easy access to proof of citizenship are disproportionately young and people of color, two demographic groups that are more likely to vote Democratic than Republican.
But the center also conducted two state-level studies in Georgia and Texas and found that “results suggest that political influences may vary by state.”
In the Texas survey, more Republicans than Democrats said they currently do not have any citizenship documents or do not have easy access to them, the center said. But a study in Georgia “found that roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans were affected,” the authors write.
In recent elections, voters are less polarized by income. Exit polls show that in 2016, voters with annual incomes of less than $30,000 supported Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton over Trump by a 13-point margin, but in 2024, Trump lost low-income voters to former Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 points.
Millions of Americans lack necessary documents
President Trump has said in recent weeks that he would not sign the bill until the Senate followed the House’s lead and passed the SAVE Act.
The Republican push this week faces fierce opposition not only from Democrats but also from some Republicans who are reluctant to do away with the Senate filibuster and the requirement for a de facto majority in the Senate to pass, as Trump has called for.
But if passed, tens of millions of Americans could be affected.
A 2024 study by New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice found that more than 21 million Americans do not have easy access to the types of citizenship documents required by this bill.
And at least 3.8 million people don’t have these documents at all, many because they’ve been lost, destroyed or stolen, according to a report by the Brennan Center, a collaboration between the Maryland Center for Democracy and Citizenship and two other voting rights groups, VoteRiders and Public Wise.
The Brennan Center report also found evidence of racial disparities, including that 8% of self-identified white Americans do not have ready access to citizenship documents, while nearly 11% of Americans of color are in a similar position.
A new Brennan Center report published last month by the same authors found that 8% of Democrats who said they voted in 2020 do not have easy access to these documents, compared with 7% of Republicans.
Complexity of mail-in registration
Other provisions that may be included in the new bill also further cloud the picture.
For example, the final version of the SAVE America Act will likely also require in-person proof of citizenship for registration and registration renewal, limiting or replacing existing methods such as the Internet, mail, and registration at a local state Department of Motor Vehicles.
A 2023 Brennan Center study found that millions more voters with access to citizenship documents still prefer to register using these common methods.
Key but bipartisan constituency
President Trump has long argued that the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden cost him widespread voter fraud, especially “millions” of illegal immigrants brought into the country by Democrats to boost their political fortunes.
Mounting empirical evidence shows that President Trump’s claims are not true and that non-referendum and other forms of election fraud are virtually non-existent.
Conservatives disagree. One of them, the Heritage Foundation, maintains a database of 1,546 “substantiated cases of voter fraud.”
“The SAVE Act would prevent noncitizens from voting in American elections,” the think tank said in a Jan. 22 Facebook post. “If you’re against it, you’re probably trying to deceive.”
Could it backfire for Republicans?
On its face, the proposed law targets administrative factors such as access to documents and registration methods, rather than political party affiliation.
But analysts say it could affect voters in both parties differently nationally and state by state, given the parties’ existing election policies and protocols.
A January 2025 analysis by the nonpartisan Government Readiness Institute found that married women, older adults, young people, Hispanics, and low-income registrants will have the most difficulty registering to vote under the SAVE Act.
In a recent analysis, The Washington Post found that rural voters — the group Trump won by 30 points in 2024 — are less likely to have a passport. That unpredictability is compounded by the fact that Republicans attract more male, working-class, first-time voters who “tend to be less educated and have less access to documentation,” the Post said.
Largest Voting Group – Older Americans
Across party lines, older Americans are likely to face the most significant documentation hurdles, including discrepancies and missing records, according to the March 17 SAVE America Act Guide by the nonpartisan AARP (formerly the American Association of Retired Persons).
AARP said in a separate report in October 2024 that it could be important because older people are a major influence in determining U.S. elections.
Turnout among voters 65 and older was the highest of any age group since 1988, with 72% voting in 2020, according to the AARP Guide. According to the report, voters over the age of 50 will account for 55% of voters in the 2024 election.
Older Americans who have moved frequently during their lifetimes or left their homes for nursing homes or assisted living facilities may have particular difficulty gathering the necessary documents to prove their eligibility, such as birth certificates.
Special challenges for women and minorities
The bills under consideration could also pose special challenges for women, especially those who take their husband’s name, which does not match the name on their birth certificate.
“For married women who have changed their names, as long as they are already registered to vote, they are not affected by the SAVE Act,” White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said at a March 10 White House press briefing.
AARP points out that 85% of women over age 50 who married men took their husband’s last name when they married.
Women overall lean toward the Democratic Party, but married women supported President Trump by 5 percentage points in 2024.
