While there are some areas where a white Christmas is almost guaranteed, nationally, things are looking pretty bleak for many snow lovers.
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Christmas is fast approaching, and meteorologists have a pretty good idea of who will wake up to a snowy landscape on Christmas Day.
While some areas are guaranteed a white Christmas, nationally the picture looks pretty bleak for many snow lovers. “Just a few weeks ago, it snowed in over 45% of the lower 48 states,” AccuWeather Principal Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok said in an email to USA TODAY.
“Roughly half of the snowpack has melted. Many snow lovers will be disappointed this Christmas,” he said.
Snowfall expected to be lower than average during Christmas week
In fact, as of the morning of December 23, the lower 48 states had just 18% snow cover, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
On average, about 38% of the lower 48 states will see an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to more than 20 years of data compiled by NOAA.
Since 2003, that percentage has varied widely from year to year, from just 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the continental United States in 2009, according to Weather.com.
Northeast storm brings snow
A snowstorm will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, Dec. 23, increasing the chances of a snowy holiday in that part of the country.
“The chance of a white Christmas is slowly increasing from northeastern Pennsylvania to northern New Jersey and southern New England as the storm moves through with fresh snow,” Pastelok said. “We expect it to remain cold enough to leave snow until Christmas morning.”
People in some parts of the Northeast could also wake up to snow on Christmas morning. AccuWeather said parts of Pennsylvania, southern New York and northern New Jersey could see a brief period of patchy ice or a combination of snow, ice and rain Wednesday night (Christmas Eve) through Thursday morning (Christmas Day).
Pastelok said yet another snow star could bring more snow later this week, and “storms could bring snow and ice to parts of the Northeast and New England from Christmas night into Friday.” “Some cities could miss out on an official white Christmas by just 12 or 24 hours.”
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Snow is sparse overall due to warm-up operations.
Overall, most parts of the country will see scattered snow over the Christmas week. “Thanks to the extensive warm-up, there will be very little snow on the ground across much of the Plains this Christmas,” Pastelok told USA TODAY.
How warm is it? High temperatures on Christmas Day are expected to be in the mid-70s in Missouri, Kansas City and St. Louis, according to National Weather Service forecast maps.
“Oklahoma City will continue to challenge or break record highs for several days in a row in the Southern Plains region by mid-to-late week,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said in an online forecast. “High temperatures are expected to be about 30 degrees above the historical average in the low 40s, especially in this city. High temperatures this week are expected to be in the low 70s.”
Introducing the perfect place for a white Christmas
Forecasts say snow has already fallen in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan and is expected to continue until Christmas.
For example, the National Weather Service reported that 3 inches of snow fell in Minneapolis on December 23rd. There’s more on the way.
“The next chance of precipitation will arrive late Christmas night across northern and central Minnesota. A wintry mix could ease travel into Christmas night and into the morning of Friday, Dec. 26,” the Minnesota Weather Service said.
Meanwhile, heavy snow may fall in the western mountains.
“Parts of the central Rocky Mountains are experiencing a snow drought, but snow is finally starting to fall, and more snow is likely to accumulate on Christmas Day,” Pastelok said. “Flying snowflakes really get you in the holiday spirit. Fresh powder is perfect for the ski mountain.”
Further west, California’s Sierra Nevada mountains are bracing for heavy snowfall this week, measured in feet rather than inches. The National Weather Service announced that “heavy snow is expected to fall in the Sierra Nevada through Thursday, December 25th.”
Snow levels in the Sierra will drop midweek, with 1 to 2 feet of snow accumulating in Northern California’s Donner Pass and up to 10 feet on Sierra ridges, leading to whiteout conditions and extended road closures, according to AccuWeather.
