We won’t know the forecast for 2025 until mid-December, but history has some hints about which parts of the U.S. are most likely to see snow on Christmas.
What is a polar vortex? How it affects snow and ice in the United States
A polar vortex is a large region of cold air that circulates over the North Pole. If the wind is strong, the wind will be suppressed, but if the wind weakens, it may sway or stretch.
Christmas is fast approaching, and many areas of the United States have already seen a glimmer (or more) of snow this winter season. But what are the chances of a white Christmas happening in 2025?
It’s too early to say with certainty where meteorologists will get enough snow to qualify as a white Christmas. (According to weather forecasters, a white Christmas is defined as at least an inch of snow on the ground, regardless of whether it actually snows on Christmas Day.)
Recent snowstorms in the Midwest, New England, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region left about 40% of the country covered in snow on Dec. 3. More snow and arctic air is expected in the coming days and weeks, forecasters said.
While the available data gives us a good idea of the possibility of a white Christmas, NOAA says: Actual conditions may vary significantly in any given year Because current weather patterns will determine whether there will be snow on the ground on Christmas Day. ” For a more reliable forecast, check back with USA TODAY coverage and your local weather service office as Dec. 25 approaches.
Still, historical weather data can tell you what the odds are in different parts of the country.
States historically most likely to have a white Christmas
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which created a white Christmas probability map based on climate data from 1991 to 2020, says a white Christmas is most likely to occur in any given year in Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, Idaho or some of the nation’s snowiest mountain ranges.
Cities historically most likely to have a white Christmas
According to an AccuWeather analysis of historical data, none of the 25 most populous U.S. cities have a very high chance (more than one-third) of a white Christmas. According to AccuWeather, Denver is the most likely city among large cities, with a 34% chance, followed by Chicago at about 33.5%.
Indianapolis, Boston and Columbus are among the top five major U.S. cities most likely to have a snowy Christmas.
Outside of large cities, mountain towns in the Rocky Mountains and New England have the best chance of a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather. The probability for Tahoe City, California is 83.4%. Ski towns in Colorado have a 94-99% chance.
States least likely to have a white Christmas
Where are the least likely locations for a snowy Christmas scene? West Coast, Deep South, Gulf Coast.
According to NOAA data, the highest chances of snowfall include much of the southeastern part of the country and the West Coast. It probably goes without saying, but based on the data, there is a 0% chance of a white Christmas in Miami, Houston, or Los Angeles.
A map showing the probability of a white Christmas occurring nationwide
Contributor: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
