Where is Hurricane Erin? See Pastracker, Spaghetti Model

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Hurricane Erin has been slightly weakened by Category 2 hurricanes, but is predicted to “grow large” as it travels over the Western Atlantic throughout the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to a 2pm ET advisory from Hurricane Center on August 19th, Erin is located about 655 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with the largest sustained winds close to 105 mph, with high gusts of wind.

Hurricane Centre forecasters say Erin is moving towards the north-northwest, with an increase in forward speed, expected by Tuesday, August 19th, followed by a northward movement on Wednesday, August 2nd, followed by a northeastern movement on Thursday.

In the predicted track, Erin’s centre will pass east of the Bahamas on Tuesday, August 19th and across the Western Atlantic between the US East Coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Erin’s strength could still fluctuate before it finally begins to finish later in the week, according to the centre’s forecast.

Big and rough waves are expected along the Atlantic coast from Central Florida to Canada, with evacuations underway along at least two islands along North Carolina’s Outer Banks, ahead of the expected storm surge and more than 10 feet of waves. Outside banks from Wednesday night through Thursday also have 1-2 inches of potential and up to 4 inches of heavy rain.

The National Weather Service is urging people to stay away from the ocean to avoid the fatal surfing conditions expected by at least Thursday.

A storm surge clock from the security guard’s observation deck to Duck, North Carolina is effective. This means that the rise in water moving inland from the coastline at the designated location for the next 48 hours could result in life-threatening flooding. The NWS said the area’s storm surge could reach 2-4 feet.

Hurricane Erinpa Tracker

This predicted track shows the most likely pathway in the center of the storm. The full width of the storm or its impact is not shown, and the storm center can move out of the cone for up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Erin Spaghetti Model

The illustrations include an array of prediction tools and models, not all are created equal. Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best-performing models to make its predictions.

National Hurricane Center Tracking Two Other Systems in the Atlantic

In addition to Erin, the Hurricane Center also tracks two other Atlantic systems that could stir up tropical weather.

The NHC said tropical waves over the Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean continue to produce a wide area of turbulent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to help the system develop gradually, and tropical depression may form towards the week or weekend.

Forecasters said the system should move west across the Central Tropical Atlantic on Friday, August 22nd, near the Leeward Islands.

A second tropical wave southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, according to predictors at the Hurricane Centre. As the system moves westward, environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional development over the next few days.

But towards the end of this week, the system may encounter less favourable environments, limiting opportunities for subsequent development. The Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% molding potential over the next 7 days.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes originate in the tropical regions above warm waters. Thunderstorm clusters can develop across the ocean when the water temperature exceeds 80 degrees. If conditions are correct, clusters are swirling into tropical waves and storms known as tropical depression.

Tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 mph. When the wind reaches 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Get ready for a hurricane now

Delaying preparations to potentially save lives could mean waiting until it’s too late. “Get disaster supply while the shelves are still in stock and flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period, so get that insurance inspection early,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

  • Establish an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from a hurricane, you will need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to plan where you will go and how you will get there.
  • Assemble disaster supply. Whether you’re evacuated or not, you’ll need supplies not only to get through the storm, but perhaps for the long aftermath, NOAA said.
  • Get an insurance inspection and document your property. Contact your insurance company or agent now to ask for an insurance inspection to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or replace your home or belongings. Remember that home insurance and tenant insurance don’t cover floods, so you’ll need a separate insurance for that. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or through your national flood insurance program. Flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period, so take action now.
  • Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time to write down your hurricane plans and share them with your family. Determine where family gatherings are to be met and include out-of-town locations in case of evacuation.
  • It strengthens your home. Now is the time to improve the home’s ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim the wood; attach storm shutters, accordion shutters, impact glass. Seal the wall opening.

This story has been updated to include new information.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter for USA Today. You can follow him with X @geuna Alternatively, email him at gdhauari@gannett.com.

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