The Bureau of Labor Statistics needs to catch up after the shutdown delayed key reports.
Winners and losers of government shutdown deal head to House
Not everyone got what they wanted in the government shutdown deal passed by the Senate.
With the federal government on the verge of reopening, the economic drought caused by the shutdown could soon end.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the weeks-delayed report, but economists warn that the result won’t be a lot of information all at once. It also may not fully capture what happened to the U.S. economy during the government shutdown.
Due to the suspension of data collection at the agency, the release of the two monthly employment statistics and the third quarter GDP data were postponed. The release of the Consumer Price Index on November 13th is also expected to be delayed.
Private sector indicators have helped fill some of the gap, but government statistics are still considered the gold standard.
When will BLS release data after shutdown?
The September jobs report is expected to be the first major release after the shutdown, as the data was already collected before the shutdown began. Other key indicators on inflation and spending are expected to take longer, perhaps a week or two, Morgan Stanley economists said.
Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the BLS to announce a new data release schedule between Nov. 13 and Nov. 17, depending on when the shutdown ends.
Economists at Goldman Sachs also said they expected the September jobs report to be released soon after the shutdown ends, and that other releases would take longer “given the Thanksgiving holiday, which compressed the data collection period in November, and the fact that the BLS may need additional time to determine how to address missing data for October.”
What does the delayed data mean for the Fed?
Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston University, said he doesn’t know which releases the BLS will prioritize, especially under the agency’s new leadership. But he added that if officials can make adjustments, the latest November data will likely be the most helpful to the Fed ahead of its December meeting.
“Without these metrics, you can’t really do anything, so the Fed’s inaction tends to be an advantage,” Bethune said. “I think it’s fair to say that the Fed is currently evenly split on whether to continue lowering rates or leave them unchanged.”
The data mess comes at a time when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said there is no “risk-free” path to policy, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target and the job market showing signs of cooling.
Economists at Morgan Stanley said in a Nov. 10 note that they expect the unemployment rate to rise through the end of the year, expect spending growth to slow in the fourth quarter and expect another quarter-point rate cut in December.
“Stronger-than-expected labor market data poses a risk to this view due to a return to data dependence,” they said.
How does BLS collect data for October?
No one at BLS collected data during the shutdown, so there are no government reports that would provide a snapshot of the economy during that period.
Still, agencies have some options. Respondents to the November survey could be asked to recall the situation in October, when their data would normally have been collected. You could also send out another survey later and ask respondents to reflect on their month. Or they could skip October altogether.
“It’s completely unclear how they backfill the household survey,” Bethune said. “If it’s not statistically or humanely feasible, there could be a gap.”
The U.S. Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Statistics could not be reached for comment.
Contact Rachel Barber rbarber@usatoday.com X Follow her at @rachelbarber_
