2025 Tennessee Special Election Results: Matt Van Epps Wins
Republican Matt Van Epps avoided an upset and won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. What does this mean for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party?
- According to the average of multiple polling companies, Donald Trump’s approval rating is a net negative.
- According to Gallup, President Trump’s approval ratings in the first years of both terms were lower than any other modern president during the same period.
- Democrats have overperformed in recent elections, warning Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
The 2026 midterm elections are just around the corner, and politicians on both sides of the election are looking for clues about which way voters are swinging.
First, the Democratic Party won an overwhelming victory in the state and local elections held on November 4th. And the race for the House district, a Republican stronghold in Tennessee, was surprisingly intense.
Republicans ultimately won the Dec. 2 special election, but President Donald Trump needed to be involved in the race to increase turnout.
Republicans may fear a blue wave in 2026, but this leads to another big clue: How do voters feel about the person at the helm of the party? Here’s what you need to know about President Trump’s approval ratings.
What is President Trump’s average approval rating?
President Trump’s approval ratings are net negative, but may be stabilizing after plummeting last month, according to an average based on RealClearPolitics and the New York Times aggregator.
According to graphics from RealClearPolitics, President Trump’s approval rating was 50.5% as of January 27th, making him net positive, but by March 13th, his approval rating was 47.8%, and his disapproval rating was 48.5%, making him net negative. The approval rating hit its lowest of 45.1% on April 29, but it declined near the 100th day of the Trump administration. It hit a new low of 42.3% on Nov. 14 as the controversy over Jeffrey Epstein’s emails intensifies following the end of the government shutdown. According to RealClearPolitics, as of Dec. 4, 42.4% approve and 54.9% disapprove.
President Trump’s approval rating fell from 52% in January to 44% in April, then remained roughly flat for several months, according to a New York Times tally. Trump’s lowest approval rating of his term is 41%, which he first reached on November 12, according to the Times. The disapproval rate also rose to 56% on November 19, the highest level this term, according to the aggregation company. According to the New York Times, as of Dec. 4, 42% of voters approve and 55% disapprove.
How does President Donald Trump’s approval rating compare to previous presidents?
In a Gallup poll conducted November 3-25, 36% of respondents approved of President Trump’s job performance.
Trump’s approval ratings in his first November as the 45th and 47th president of the United States were lower than any other modern president during the same period, according to a historical analysis by Gallup. According to Gallup, his November confirmation compares to other presidents’ first year in office.
- Joe Biden (November 2021) – 42% support
- President Trump (November 2017) – 37% approve
- Barack Obama (November 2009) – 51% approve
- George W. Bush (November 2001) – 87% approved
- Bill Clinton (November 1993) – 49% support
- George H.W. Bush (November 1989) – 70% approve
- Ronald Reagan (November 1981) – 52% approve
Gallup: Republicans dissatisfied with President Trump, approval rating at lowest in term
According to Gallup’s monthly poll (conducted from November 3rd to 25th), President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% from 41% the previous month. The poll surveyed 1,321 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Compared to last month’s Gallup poll, President Trump’s approval rating has fallen by 7 points among Republicans and 8 points among independents.
This is the lowest approval rating for President Trump for a second term, according to the pollster, but it is statistically similar to his approval rating of 37% in July. His all-time low at the end of his term after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was 34% in 2021, Gallup reported.
Among issues, Trump has the highest approval rating on crime, but the worst on health care, according to Gallup.
The Economist/YouGov: Seven consecutive weeks of net approval rating at least -15 points
The Economist/YouGov poll was conducted between November 28 and December. 38% approve of Trump’s job performance, while 57% disapprove. The survey included 1,628 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
According to the pollster, President Trump’s net approval rating has remained below -15 points for seven consecutive weeks. While slumps in approval ratings this low lasted only a few weeks at a time during his first term, Biden recorded 28 consecutive weeks of such low approval ratings toward the end of his presidency, according to YouGov.
Contributor: Joey Garrison, USA TODAY
Kinsey Crowley is a Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Please contact KCrowley@usatodayco.com. follow her X (Twitter), blue sky and TikTok.
