Hurricane Erin, the first of the Atlantic season, has temporarily reached Category 5 status. What does a heavy storm mean for the rest of 2025?
NOAA Hurricane Hunter captures Hurricane Erin’s eyes in the Atlantic Ocean
NOAA and the Air Force Hurricane Hunter filmed stunning footage in the eyes of Hurricane Erin over the Atlantic.
Hurricane Erin was a major storm expected to be fired off the East Coast of the US over the next few days, and temporarily achieved Category 5 status on August 16th, which was escalating in the Atlantic.
Category 5 hurricanes are the rarest storms, reaching strong winds of over 157 mph, only a small portion of all tropical cyclones.
Will this Category 5 storm portend a potentially devastating season, among the earliest on record? USA Today contacted experts to take on this question.
Is Erin a sign of a potentially devastating hurricane season?
“Erin’s rapid strengthening to CAT 5 does not imply a potential CAT 5 hurricane this year,” said Yonggang Liu, associate professor of physics and oceanography at the University of South Florida and director of the Institute of Ocean Circulation.
In an email to USA Today, Colorado State University research scientist Levi Silvers said Erin’s CAT 5 status will not affect forecasts for the rest of the season.
“Above average seasons are expected based on atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures, including forecasts for additional major hurricanes,” he said. “Erin’s rapid strengthening to Category 5 hurricanes was a bit surprising, but the predictions remain the same.”
Dan Brown, the branch chief of Hurricane Specialists at the National Hurricane Center, shared similar thoughts with USA Today.
Brown pointed to the previous two seasons for comparison.
“In 1992, the first hurricane of the season was Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, but that storm was the only major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin that year, with a total of seven-name storms formed,” he said. “In contrast, during the 2024 hurricane season, Beryl became a Category 5 hurricane in July, with four additional major hurricanes formed in the year with a total of 18 names of storms.”
The latest Colorado State University forecast, released in early August, calls for a total of eight hurricanes in 2025, with three of which predicted to be major. Based on that forecast, it is possible that seven hurricanes will form for the remainder of 2025, two of which could be major.
Silver also revealed the definition of “devastating season.”
“Unfortunately, there is only one intense hurricane landing in vulnerable areas to bring about a devastating season,” he said. “Fortunately, Erin is not predicted to land.”
Brown agreed by saying, “The most important lesson is to remember that you only have one hurricane to affect you in order to be the bad year you live in.”
“As we approach the peak of hurricane season, it’s time to find out if we live in the evacuation zone and make sure our hurricane plans are in place,” Brown said.
Is there a correlation between CAT 5 in August and the rest of the season’s activities?
Silvers said it “doesn’t recognize the correlation between Category 5 in August and subsequent seasonal activity.” However, he added: “We haven’t reached the climatological peak of hurricane season yet, so we look forward to a lot of further activity.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seasonal climatological peaks are usually around September 10th.
Overall, Silver said, “One of the difficulties in this type of correlation is that it is a small number of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes that occur in August. They are certainly not unprecedented, but they are rare, which makes it difficult to calculate robust statistical relationships.”
How quickly did Hurricane Erin get strengthened?
The wind speed of Hurricane Erin shook on August 16th. Erin, the fifth-named storm of the season, quickly surpassed expectations after a period of what Hurricane Centre called “rapid strengthening.”
Erin’s burst of reinforcement is one of the fastest recorded in the Atlantic.
That wind increased 45 mph in just 12 hours over the night on Friday, August 15th, from 75 mph to 120 mph. Ultimately, its wind speed increased by 80 mph in just 18 hours.
Last year, Hurricane Milton surpassed that mark. In a postseason summary for the 2024 hurricane season, NOAA reported that Milton’s strengthening rate, which was 90 mph in 24 hours in October 2024 – was “one of the most observed to date.”
At least two other hurricanes have surpassed that increase. In 2005, the winds at Hurricane Wilma increased by 125 mph in 24 hours. In 2007, the wind speed at Hurricane Felix increased by 100 mph in 24 hours.
Hurricane Erin moves northwest through the Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Erin was weakened, but by the beginning of Tuesday it was still a strong Category 3 storm with a maximum sustained wind of 115 mph.
Scripps News -WPTV West Palm Beach
How common is CAT 5?
NOAA’s database has a slightly more than 40 hurricanes on record, reaching wind speeds of over 157 mph, reaching the minimum threshold for category 5 hurricanes. However, records show that since 2022, at least one Category 5 hurricane has existed every year.
Erin has become the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, according to University of Oklahoma student and hurricane mapmaker Michael Ferragamo.
This is a comprehensive database compiled by federal researchers, including the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA’s Atlantic and Oceanographic and Meteorological Institutes, with the highest number of CAT 5 hurricanes recorded over a nine-year time frame on record. The database dates back to 1851 are supported by decades of research into storm records, including 19th-century ship logs and other historical accounts.
By 10, there were eight Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic during the first 20 years of this century. There have been five since 2020. Before this century, the largest number of CAT 5 occurred in the 1930s.
Ocean temperature can contribute to storm strength
Experts said ocean temperatures could contribute to the rapid strengthening of storms, both subsurface and subsurface.
Recent ocean data shows that Erin may be gaining fuel from underground temperatures in the ocean, Li said. “Underground ocean temperature information is important,” he added.
The most recent data shows that temperatures are rising at the upper and upper surfaces of the ocean.
The heat in the upper ocean layers of major hurricane-developed areas of the Atlantic Ocean are lower than this time last year, but still warmer than usual.
The sea surface temperature was also warmed in mid-August.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
USA Today journalists Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Purver have overturned hurricanes and other violent weather for decades. Please contact us at drice@usatoday.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.
