Long-term forecast for the last week of October
Wet and cold weather could affect your trick-or-treating plans this Halloween.
A series of weather systems is bringing heavy rain and dangerous surf to parts of the Southeast, particularly Florida, but the well-timed weather systems are also part of a weather pattern that is predicted to protect the continental United States from the direct effects of powerful Hurricane Melissa.
On Oct. 26, “several feet” of water was reported to have accumulated in the lobby of a resort in Boca Raton after heavy rain, according to the National Weather Service in Miami, Florida. Standing water also flooded an intersection in Palm Beach, the weather service said.
In Central Florida, more than 19 inches of rain was reported in Eustis, Lake County, in a 24-hour period, and multiple locations in the county reported more than 16 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida. More than 14 inches of rain was reported in Titusville, home to the Kennedy Space Center, and a flood watch remained in place until Oct. 27, the National Weather Service announced.
David Ross, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, said the storm that set single-day precipitation records in central and southern Florida from October 25 to 27 is not directly related to Melissa, but is part of a weather pattern that the hurricane center expects will help steer Melissa northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. Ross said the eastern trough has been going on since August.
Heavy rain is expected to move further north along the U.S. East Coast later in the week, with a “marginal” risk of excessive rainfall causing isolated flash flooding in the Appalachians and parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on the night of October 29 and into the morning of October 30.
Sometimes, some weather patterns aloft can act to concentrate heavy rain in certain areas, Ross said. Areas including Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey are expected to face a similar risk of heavy rain on October 30th and October 31st.
The system is expected to provide relief from the sweltering heat for trick-or-treaters in the South wearing their excessively hot Halloween costumes by the weekend, and by Oct. 31, much of the East will see below-average temperatures. However, a low-pressure system is expected to bring rain, which could spoil All Hallows’ Eve festivities in the northeast.
Hurricane Melissa, a potential catastrophic Category 5 hurricane, is expected to make landfall along the coast of southern Jamaica on the morning of October 28, leaving a devastating trail across the island and Cuba hours later. From there, the storm is expected to move through the central and southeastern Bahamas, passing over or near Bermuda on October 30th.
Melissa could briefly bring swells and rough seas to the U.S. East Coast after it passes the Bahamas later this week, but given the angle and speed at which it heads toward the Atlantic, any coastal impacts will likely be short-term, Ross said.
This hurricane season has seen several offshore passing storms, including tropical storms and nor’easters, cause erosion and coastal impacts, but so far the only Atlantic system to make landfall in the continental United States was Tropical Storm Chantal, which crossed the coast of South Carolina and passed through North Carolina on July 6.
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, covers climate change, wildlife and the environment. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
