Virginia and New Jersey are the first states to hold major gubernatorial elections since President Donald Trump took office. Political watchers closely monitor voters’ opinions.
This year’s high-stakes gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey will set the stage for the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats scramble to regain control of Congress and Republicans seek to maintain their slim majorities in President Donald Trump’s remaining two terms.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has consistently held a roughly 10-point lead in polls over her Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears. Meanwhile, New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill is in a close race against Republican Jack Ciatarelli, according to recent race polls.
Voters in New Jersey and Virginia have a track record of electing governors from the president’s opponents. Let’s take a look at how these states have voted in the past.
Since 1989, New Jersey has elected a governor who opposes the incumbent president until 2021, but Democrat Phil Murphy has broken that record.
Meanwhile, Virginia voters have voted for a non-White House party in every gubernatorial election since 1977, except for 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe secured victory during President Barack Obama’s second term.
Whit Ayers, a longtime Republican strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research, said this pattern is a key element he and other political analysts are watching for this year’s campaign.
“This is an incredibly consistent pattern that literally goes back to the Jimmy Carter era,” he said of Virginia’s trend. “Now the question is, what happens when Donald Trump returns to the White House?”
The two gubernatorial elections, held every four years, are considered a barometer of American voters’ sentiment toward the party in power, as they are the first major elections held after a president takes office.
This year is no exception. Trump’s name is nowhere on the ballot, but he was a key figure in both campaigns. In the 2024 presidential election, Virginia and New Jersey tilted toward the Democratic Party, but Trump made inroads in both states. In New Jersey, the state lost 10% less than in 2020.
Mr. Ciattarelli was once a non-Trump Republican, but he is leaning toward supporting the president. He told the USA TODAY Network that he speaks with President Trump every few weeks.
SOURCE USA TODAY NETWORK REPORTS AND INVESTIGATIONS. Getty Images; Reuters; Record
